【音频版】2024年11月1日金十期货早餐（周五）

Macroeconomic Insights - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after five consecutive months below 50% [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain reasonable liquidity in the banking system, alongside a net purchase of 200 billion yuan in government bonds throughout the month [1] - China and the U.S. engaged in constructive discussions regarding macroeconomic and monetary policies, with China outlining a package of policies to support stable economic growth [1] - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September remained unchanged at 2.7% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 0.3% [1] Commodity Market Movements - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower, with energy and chemical products showing mixed results; low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 1.06%, while pure soda fell by 2.42% [3] - International oil prices saw an overall increase, with WTI crude oil for December rising by 2.8% to $70.53 per barrel, and Brent crude for January 2025 increasing by 2.51% to $73.97 per barrel [3] - International precious metals futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down by 1.67% to $2754.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down by 3.74% to $32.8 per ounce [3][4] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry PMI for October was reported at 54.6%, a rise of 5.6 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after 19 months [7] - Mysteel reported a decrease in rebar production and an increase in social inventory, with rebar social inventory at 2.8257 million tons, up by 3.83 thousand tons [7] Agricultural Products Insights - Chinese enterprises have been slow to purchase U.S. soybeans for December shipment due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election and potential trade tensions [8] - The sugar production forecast for Guangxi in the 2024/2025 season is optimistic, with expected sugar production between 6.67 million and 7.2 million tons [8] - Brazil's sugar export waiting ships decreased to 59, with a total of 232.18 million tons of sugar waiting for shipment [9] Energy and Chemical Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines prohibiting new cement and flat glass projects without capacity replacement plans [14] - Domestic pure soda inventory reached 1.6777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%, marking a 226.97% year-on-year increase [14] - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 78 billion cubic feet, with a year-on-year increase of 1,070 billion cubic feet [15] Metal Market Insights - National aluminum oxide inventory decreased to 3.846 million tons, with ongoing low inventory levels despite recent price adjustments [16] - Citigroup predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000 per ounce in the next six months due to a deteriorating U.S. job market and increased demand for gold ETFs [16]