数据荒搅局！美联储降息计划或将重新洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in formulating interest rate policy amid a weak labor market and high inflation, compounded by the potential delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve's Challenges - The government shutdown may delay the release of important economic data, including the employment report, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about whether the labor market has weakened enough to warrant recession fears, and how much they can lower interest rates without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. - Alternative data sources, such as ADP and Indeed, are being utilized to gauge labor market dynamics, but inflation-related data remains scarce [2][3]. Group 2: Divergence in Federal Reserve's Policy Actions - In the previous month, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - The median forecast among Federal Reserve officials suggests two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding the frequency of future cuts [4]. - Some officials express hesitation in making further policy adjustments due to the lack of reliable data, indicating a potential preference to maintain the current policy stance [4][5]. Group 3: Perspectives from Economists - Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve official, believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates again in October due to concerns about the labor market, emphasizing the difficulty in proving that the labor market is out of danger without key employment data [5]. - Economists highlight that the Federal Reserve is not making decisions blindly; they are actively seeking information and have previously navigated government shutdowns by utilizing available resources [5]. - The interruption in data releases may lead to increased market volatility, which could further influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5].