“美联储传声筒”：最高法院成为美联储独立性的最后一道防线

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling allows Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her position until January, providing a significant check against former President Trump's efforts to dismiss her, which could impact the Fed's independence and governance [2][3]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The Supreme Court's decision does not resolve the core legal question of whether Trump can dismiss Cook but grants her crucial time to contest the dismissal [2]. - Trump's attempt to fire Cook is unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve, which has never seen a sitting president attempt to remove a board member [3][4]. - The legal basis for the Federal Reserve's independence is weak, relying on historical precedent rather than explicit constitutional protection [3][9]. Group 2: Political Reactions and Market Impact - Unlike previous threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump's move against Cook has not significantly affected financial markets, indicating uncertainty on how to respond to such extreme actions [4]. - Republican senators have shown a surprising level of compliance with Trump's actions, with some downplaying concerns about the Fed's independence [4][6]. - The Senate confirmed Trump's advisor Stephen Miran to another Fed board position shortly after the dismissal attempt, reflecting a lack of opposition from Congress [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Perspective on Fed Independence - The constitutional authority over monetary policy lies with Congress, which has historically sought to maintain the Fed's independence to prevent political interference [7][8]. - The 1935 reforms established a structure for the Fed that included long terms for board members and strict conditions for dismissal, emphasizing the need for independence akin to that of the Supreme Court [8][9]. - Analysts warn that undermining the Fed's independence could lead to higher long-term bond yields, counteracting Trump's goal of lowering interest rates [9]. Group 4: Future Considerations for the Fed - Cook's ability to remain in her position until early next year may alleviate uncertainties regarding the leadership of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, which require reappointment by the Fed's board [10]. - The current board composition, if Cook were to leave, would create a balance of power that could complicate decisions regarding regional Fed leadership [10][11].