连平：美联储降息对国际资本市场的影响

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the beginning of the second phase of rate cuts aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic and financial risks [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The recent rate cut is characterized as a preemptive measure rather than a crisis response, intended to mitigate potential economic downturns [2] - The Fed may implement 1-2 additional rate cuts in the remaining quarter of the year, with a total reduction of 0.25-0.5 percentage points depending on economic growth and inflation trends [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The rate cut is generally favorable for the stock market, enhancing financing accessibility and reducing corporate financing costs, but its positive impact on global markets should not be overestimated [2] - Significant capital outflows from U.S. equities have been observed, with approximately $259 billion exiting U.S. long-term equity mutual funds in the first half of the year, and a record outflow of $357.4 billion in July [3] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Funds flowing out of U.S. equities are primarily being reallocated to U.S. bonds and money markets, indicating a shift towards safer assets rather than a large-scale migration to foreign equities [4] - Despite some capital inflow into non-U.S. markets, the overall scale remains limited, with only $13.6 billion flowing into global equity funds outside the U.S. in July [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the Fed continues its moderate rate cut strategy, most funds are expected to remain within the U.S. financial markets, although some investors may seek undervalued assets globally [5] - A potential aggressive rate cut by the Fed could lead to a temporary boost in global markets, benefiting developed markets like Europe and Japan, as well as emerging markets [5]