日本央行副行长暗示10月或加息，称经济达标将继续上调利率

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, reiterated that the central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate if the economy performs as expected, following optimistic corporate confidence indicators [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The short-term survey released by the Bank of Japan shows that corporate confidence remains at a good level, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which has improved for two consecutive quarters [1] - The large non-manufacturing index remains high, indicating overall positive sentiment in the economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Uchida's remarks, the Japanese yen experienced significant fluctuations, initially strengthening before retreating, closing around 147.16 against the US dollar [1] - Market observers noted that Uchida's comments seem to pave the way for a potential interest rate hike in October, although he did not overly commit to this stance [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of an interest rate hike in the upcoming meeting has risen to approximately 60%, a significant increase from 22% at the beginning of the month [2] - Recent comments from two committee members opposing the maintenance of the 0.5% policy rate have contributed to the heightened expectations for a rate increase [2] Group 4: Political Context - The Bank of Japan faces domestic political uncertainties, particularly with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party holding a leadership election, which may influence the central bank's policy flexibility [2] - A recent survey indicated that one of the candidates supports maintaining the 0.5% interest rate, while others believe the decision should be left to the central bank [2]