IC外汇平台：欧元兑美元缩减涨幅，回落至1.1730

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is currently facing selling pressure, retreating to the 1.1740-1.1730 range due to a rebound in the US dollar and disappointing ADP employment data, despite a slight improvement in ISM manufacturing PMI data [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair struggles to maintain upward momentum, with resistance at 1.1800 [3]. - The next resistance level for bulls is at 1.1918, with a potential test of the psychological level at 1.2000 if this area is breached. Conversely, a drop below the weekly low of 1.1645 could expose the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1605, followed by the weekly low of 1.1574 and the August low of 1.1391 [4]. - Momentum indicators show mixed signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above the 50 threshold, indicating a loss of control by buyers. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 14, suggesting a lack of strength in the current trend [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a decrease in Eurozone unemployment by 4.846K, against a consensus of 15.400K, while the unemployment rate remains at 6.0% [6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions include a 25 basis point rate cut, acknowledging a weak labor market while emphasizing that inflation remains "slightly high." The updated dot plot indicates a dovish stance, with expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end [8][9]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable interest rates, with officials assessing that inflation is tracking towards a mid-term target of around 2%. The core inflation rate is projected to average 2.4% in 2025, declining to 1.8% by 2027 [11][12]. Trade Tensions - Trade remains a critical risk factor, with a temporary truce between Washington and Beijing easing tensions, although high tariffs persist. The US continues to impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China maintains a 10% tariff on US goods. Additionally, a recent agreement between the US and EU has led to reduced tariffs on industrial goods, but issues regarding automobile tariffs remain unresolved [13].