金银再度上演多空双杀戏码！高位“上车”风险正在加剧

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown and weak private sector employment data have increased traders' bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a peak of $3,890 before declining, while silver hit $48 per ounce, marking the highest level since May 2011, before also retreating [1]. - Traders are increasingly betting on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year due to the ongoing weak labor market [5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders believe there is nearly a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysts suggest that gold remains in a bullish trend, with support at $3,852 and potential targets at $3,914 and $3,934 if it breaks the resistance at $3,898 [3]. - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 89-90, indicating an overbought condition, which may lead to profit-taking if key support levels are breached [4]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Trust reported a 0.59% increase in holdings, reaching 1,018.89 tons, the highest level since July 2022 [5]. - September saw the highest monthly net inflow into gold ETFs in three years, with Chinese investors also increasing their holdings in popular gold ETFs [6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 by the end of 2026 due to increased speculative positions and higher-than-expected ETF holdings [5].