Why Upstart Stock Lost 31% in September

Core Viewpoint - Upstart's shares experienced a significant decline in September due to concerns over rising delinquency rates on its loans, influenced by third-party market research and signs of a weakening economy [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - By the end of September, Upstart's stock had fallen 31%, with most of the decline occurring towards the end of the month [3]. - The stock's worst day was on September 10, when it dropped 9.4% following the bankruptcy of Tricolor Holdings, a used-car dealer that lends to borrowers with no credit [6]. - After a brief recovery due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 17, the stock began to slide again as credit concerns resurfaced, culminating in an 8% drop on September 29 after a note from BTIG regarding increased delinquencies [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The sell-off in Upstart's stock was primarily driven by a deteriorating credit picture for low-income Americans, which is a core market for the company [5]. - Other fintech stocks, particularly in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector, also experienced declines due to rising credit risk concerns [2]. - The bankruptcy of Tricolor Holdings, although not directly connected to Upstart, negatively impacted credit markets and contributed to the volatility of Upstart's stock [6]. Group 3: Company Communication - There has been no direct communication from Upstart regarding the impact of changing credit markets on its business, despite management's participation in a Goldman Sachs conference on September 9 [8].