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购买力平价引领统计新叙事,美国媒体承认中美经济结构性差距
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-02 17:03

Core Viewpoint - The narrative surrounding the economic comparison between China and the United States is shifting, with data indicating that China's economy, when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), has surpassed that of the U.S. and the gap is widening [1][3][20] Economic Scale Comparison - As of 2023, China's GDP is approximately $17.89 trillion, while the U.S. stands at about $27.36 trillion, suggesting that China represents only 65% of the U.S. GDP when using current exchange rates [3] - However, according to PPP, China's economy is estimated at around $32.93 trillion compared to the U.S. at $27.36 trillion, indicating that China has been larger since 2014 [3][5] - By 2025, the IMF predicts that China's PPP will account for 19.68% of the global economy, while the U.S. will account for 14.75%, reflecting a significant structural change [3][11] Manufacturing and Production - China's manufacturing value added is approximately $4.98 trillion, constituting 27.7% of its GDP, compared to the U.S. manufacturing value of about $2.8 trillion, which is only 11% of its GDP [6] - In terms of tangible outputs, China leads in various sectors, including shipbuilding, automotive production, and steel production, showcasing a more substantial manufacturing base [6] Growth Rates and Economic Structure - In 2023, China's GDP growth rate is reported at 5.2%, nearly double that of the U.S. at 2.5% [9] - The U.S. growth is heavily reliant on consumer spending and government expenditure, with a significant portion funded by debt, raising concerns about long-term sustainability [9][17] Institutional Adjustments and Predictions - International institutions like the IMF and UBS have revised their forecasts, indicating a more optimistic outlook for China's economic growth compared to the U.S. [11][19] - By 2025, predictions suggest that China's economic growth will continue to outpace that of the U.S., with a projected increase in GDP of approximately $5.1 trillion for China versus $2.5 trillion for the U.S. [19] Trade Dynamics - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's exports to the U.S. have shown resilience, indicating the strength of its supply chains and manufacturing capabilities [16] Debt and Economic Quality - The U.S. faces challenges with rising national debt, projected to exceed $34 trillion, which may hinder its long-term economic growth potential [9][17] - In contrast, China's growth is supported by substantial investments in manufacturing and technology, suggesting a more sustainable economic model [20]