国庆假期之前的这轮股市上涨，真正的原因，该去怎么理解？

Group 1 - A-shares experienced an unexpected rise before the National Day holiday, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.74% and the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 2% on September 29, leading to over 3,500 stocks in the market gaining [1][3] - The core reason for this market behavior was the significant improvement in industrial profits, with August data showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous decline of 1.5% in July, marking a new high in growth rate [3][10] - The expectation of global liquidity easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a probability exceeding 90% in September, also contributed positively to the A-share market, particularly benefiting growth sectors [3][6] Group 2 - The policy environment is supportive, with long-term special government bonds directed towards consumption recovery, technological upgrades, and infrastructure, enhancing market expectations for defensive sectors [5][6] - On September 29, brokerage stocks surged, with the sector index rising by 4.4%, driven by expectations of high growth in brokerage firms' Q3 performance and a prior significant price correction [6][10] - The electronics sector saw a notable increase of 3.86%, with semiconductor companies like SMIC reporting over 90% capacity utilization and Longi Green Energy achieving a 20.1% revenue growth, indicating an early recovery in the industry [7][11] Group 3 - The consumer sector, particularly high-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye, showed resilience, with tourism and hotel orders increasing by over 40% year-on-year, supported by policies promoting consumption upgrades [7][10] - Gold prices benefited from a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, with the dollar index hitting a six-month low amid expectations of Fed rate cuts [8][10] - Despite the market's positive performance, there was a significant increase in share reduction plans among listed companies, with 428 companies disclosing such plans in September, totaling 12.045 billion yuan, a 79.32% month-on-month increase [10][13] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector showed strong profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 7.2% in the first eight months, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth [11][13] - The cost situation for enterprises improved, with costs per 100 yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan year-on-year, marking the first decrease since July 2025 [13] - A significant net inflow of capital was observed in the week leading up to the holiday, with 19 sectors receiving a total of 149.134 billion yuan in net inflows, particularly in electronics, power equipment, and computing [13][14]