A股休市外资却抢筹！90%对冲基金加仓中国资产，节后补涨行情即将引发

Core Viewpoint - Over 90% of global hedge funds are rapidly buying Chinese stocks, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and breakthroughs in AI technology, while the A-share market is closed for the National Day holiday [1][3][29] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective surge, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising by 9.1%, the largest single-day increase since August of the previous year, and South Korea's KOSPI index climbing by 6.6% [3] - The FTSE China A50 index saw a significant rise during the A-share market's closure, indicating active capital positioning in anticipation of post-holiday market trends [3][27] Capital Flows - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since June, primarily driven by bullish sentiment, with a buy-to-short ratio of approximately 9:1 [6][28] - Morgan Stanley reported that over 90% of investors are willing to increase their exposure to the Chinese market, the highest level since early 2021 [6] Economic Indicators - The surge in global asset prices is largely attributed to heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with market predictions suggesting a 92% chance of a rate cut in September [3][14] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a 2.9% year-on-year increase in CPI and a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, has fueled these expectations [3] AI Technology Developments - Breakthroughs in AI technology, particularly by domestic models like DeepSeek, have sparked significant investment interest, with major tech companies expected to increase their capital expenditures by approximately 49.6% in the 2025 fiscal year [4][21] - The AI sector is witnessing a surge in related investments, with various sub-sectors, including humanoid robots and AI glasses, reaching historical highs [11][12] Structural Characteristics of Capital Flows - In the Korean stock market, automotive and semiconductor stocks led the gains, while Japanese markets were driven by technology and export stocks [6] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising and technology stocks being the main drivers [6] Investment Trends - Institutional investors are advised to focus on technology growth and consumer recovery as key investment themes [20] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure investments, such as AI chips and servers, is gaining attention, alongside emerging sectors like humanoid robots [21] Market Sentiment and Expectations - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with a notable increase in foreign capital inflows and domestic long-term funds entering the market [22][19] - Historical data suggests that global markets tend to perform well during Chinese holidays, indicating potential for A-shares to catch up post-holiday [15][23] Technical Analysis - The A-share market has shown signs of a breakout, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing key resistance levels and maintaining high trading volumes [24] - The financial technology sector remains active, with significant market interest and potential for further growth [25]