IC Markets官网：新兴市场涨势能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets (EM) outperformed developed markets (DM) in Q3, driven by strong gains in North Asian tech stocks and a rebound in Chinese market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose approximately 11% in Q3, compared to a 7% increase in developed markets [2]. - Key leaders included South Korea and Taiwan, benefiting from semiconductor and AI hardware demand, while ASEAN markets lagged due to weak domestic demand [3][5][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The rise was primarily driven by cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, technology, and materials [2]. - Notable sector performances included: - Consumer discretionary (+12.6%) - Technology (+10.4%) - Materials (+10.3%) - Communication services (+8.2%) - Defensive sectors like financials and healthcare underperformed, indicating a shift towards growth-sensitive sectors [11]. Group 3: Future Potential - Future performance of emerging markets will depend on several factors: 1. Earnings expectations: Bloomberg consensus predicts strong earnings growth for emerging markets, with +11.3% in 2025 and +15.0% in 2026, compared to lower expectations for the US and Europe [12]. 2. Valuation and capital flows: Emerging market stocks are trading at a lower valuation (expected P/E of 12.4) compared to developed markets, indicating potential for capital inflows [15]. 3. Dollar dynamics: A weaker dollar historically supports emerging market performance, while a strengthening dollar poses challenges [16]. 4. Domestic policies and reforms: Structural reforms in markets like India and Mexico can enhance mid-term earnings resilience [17]. 5. Commodity and trade conditions: Resource-rich regions benefit from rising metal and energy cycles, while Asian importers gain from lower energy prices [18]. 6. Industry leadership sustainability: The AI-related supply chain and consumer trends in emerging markets provide long-term growth drivers, though a shift to defensive sectors may alter leadership dynamics [18]. 7. Positioning and liquidity: Underweight positions suggest room for capital inflows, but smaller emerging markets may experience disproportionate volatility [18].