常规关门还是经济风险？专家警告：特朗普政府举措或引发连锁反应

Core Viewpoint - The current government shutdown in the U.S. poses unprecedented risks, particularly with potential mass layoffs of federal employees, which could severely impact the economy and market confidence [1][5][7]. Economic Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have resulted in temporary disruptions, with the S&P 500 remaining stable during such periods. However, the potential for significant layoffs this time could lead to a more severe and lasting economic downturn [1][5]. - Stephanie Ross, Chief Economist at Wolf Research, emphasizes that layoffs would lead to serious economic issues that are difficult to rectify in the medium term, as federal employees' income and consumer confidence are crucial for economic stability [2][4]. - The shutdown could create an information vacuum, as key economic data may not be collected or released, complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve and investors [2][4][7]. Market Reactions - Despite the looming risks, Wall Street remains optimistic, relying on historical precedents where shutdowns did not lead to significant economic fallout. This optimism may be misplaced if mass layoffs occur [4][5][8]. - Bob Elliott, CIO of UnlimitedFunds, warns that the current fragile job market could exacerbate the situation, leading to a prolonged economic recovery if layoffs happen [4][5]. Social Consequences - The potential for mass layoffs not only poses economic risks but also social implications, as the loss of income for hundreds of thousands of families could lead to decreased consumer spending and local economic downturns [5][6]. - The impact on local government tax revenues and public services could further strain the economy, creating a cascading effect on various sectors [5][6]. Conclusion - The current market confidence is based on assumptions that may soon be challenged if layoffs occur, indicating that the stakes are higher than in previous shutdowns [8].