丰产预期下，玉米价格节后怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of increased production and potential price fluctuations following the National Day holiday. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - As of September 24, corn inventory at 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in China is approximately 2.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 20% [1] - The opening price for new season corn is higher than last year due to a combination of factors including reduced imports and strong downstream demand [1] - The anticipated corn yield for this year is expected to increase by about 10% year-on-year, with the highest yield in five years reported from recent field surveys [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - There is a potential for a seasonal rebound in corn demand in Q4, driven by high pig inventory levels and increased feedstock replenishment needs due to low current inventories [1] - The demand from the livestock sector is constrained by policies aimed at reducing breeding stock and current losses in farming profits, leading to cautious stocking behavior among feed manufacturers [2] - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption period for starch and alcohol, which may lead to a seasonal increase in demand from deep processing enterprises [1][2] Group 3: Price Outlook - Following the National Day holiday, an influx of new corn is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, with potential price declines anticipated [3] - Despite the expected supply pressure, a balance between supply and demand, along with policy interventions, may limit the extent of price declines, stabilizing prices near cost levels [4] - If corn prices fall to around 2000 yuan per ton, there may be a significant release of replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, providing upward price momentum [4]