Last Chance for EV Incentives? Tesla's Stock Surges as Buyers Rush In

Core Insights - Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, surpassing Wall Street's forecast of 447,600, driven by a rush to utilize the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before its expiration [1][2] - The expiration of the tax credit is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown in sales as consumers adjust to higher prices [7][10] - Tesla's stock rose over 2% following the delivery report, indicating renewed investor confidence [4][11] Delivery Performance - The Q3 delivery figure of 497,099 units was significantly higher than the anticipated range of 447,000 to 509,000 units, reflecting a strong pull-forward demand due to the expiring tax credit [1][5] - Despite the strong quarter, deliveries were slightly below the 462,890 units delivered in the same quarter last year, indicating ongoing challenges [6] Market Dynamics - The expiration of the federal EV tax credit marks a significant shift in the US electric vehicle market, impacting Tesla's pricing strategy and competitive positioning [7][11] - In China, Tesla experienced strong sales momentum, while European sales lagged due to an aging vehicle lineup and political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [9] Future Outlook - Analysts project Tesla's full-year 2025 deliveries to reach approximately 1.85 million units, with expectations for a more subdued Q4 as competition intensifies and the tax credit boost is no longer available [10] - The transition to a post-subsidy market will test Tesla's brand loyalty and technological edge, raising questions about the company's long-term growth sustainability [11][12]