石化化工行业迎利好！7部门联合发布重磅文件 “反内卷”有序推进

Core Viewpoint - The recently released "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the challenges of overcapacity in refining and insufficient supply in high-end materials, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value during this period [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The petrochemical industry is currently facing intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties [4]. - In 2024, domestic refined oil demand is expected to peak and decline, leading to overcapacity in refining, with national refining capacity reaching 955 million tons per year [4]. - The government aims to control crude oil processing capacity within 1 billion tons by 2025 as part of the "14th Five-Year" modern energy system planning [4]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and the scientific regulation of new capacity for ethylene and paraxylene, while supporting the renovation of outdated petrochemical facilities and the demonstration of new technologies [4][5]. - By the end of 2025, the plan aims to complete the relocation and transformation of hazardous chemical production enterprises in densely populated urban areas [4]. Group 3: High-End Supply Enhancement - The plan identifies key areas such as electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and specialty rubbers to enhance supply capabilities and promote domestic production of critical materials [6]. - The demand for new materials in emerging industries like new energy, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots is expected to create new growth opportunities for the industry [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent vicious competition within the industry, with recent actions indicating a shift towards optimizing the supply-demand structure [9]. - For instance, a recent announcement from Xinxiang Chemical Fiber to suspend production of 31,200 tons of viscose filament yarn for 90 days will impact approximately 13% of the industry supply [9]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The release of the plan has renewed market expectations for the petrochemical sector, with analysts noting that the industry is likely to transition from a focus on scale expansion to optimizing existing capacity and pursuing high-quality growth [11]. - Future investment opportunities are anticipated in both price recovery cycles and the development of high-end new materials [11].