BUD APAC(HK:01876) 智通财经网·2025-10-03 01:52Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) but lowers the target price to HKD 9.50, citing that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure, with potential marginal improvement in Q4 and a supporting dividend yield exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The company is expected to report a 6.4% year-on-year decline in group revenue for Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 14.4% and adjusted net profit projected at USD 190 million, down 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The core pressure on performance is attributed to the soft on-premise channel in mainland China, partially offset by strong growth in the Indian market, price increases in the Korean market, and cost improvements [1] Group 2: Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia-Pacific West region, particularly mainland China, the on-premise channel is under pressure due to factors such as alcohol bans and price wars on delivery platforms, leading to a high single-digit year-on-year revenue decline and a deeper sequential decline in Q3 [1] - The company has actively adjusted inventory to alleviate pressure on distributors, maintaining good inventory management to support future recovery, with expectations of marginal recovery in Q4 [1] - In the Asia-Pacific East region, the performance is expected to be relatively stable, with slight revenue decline impacted by exchange rates, low single-digit volume decline, and mid-single-digit average price growth, alongside a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA [2]