SMIC(HK:00981) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-03 02:05Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline in early trading on October 3, with the Hang Seng Index at 27,221.46 points, down 65.66 points, a decrease of 0.24% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported a drop to 6,653.26 points, down 29.60 points, a decline of 0.44% [2] Focus on Companies - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981.HK) opened higher by 0.78% at HKD 90.35, continuing its upward trend after a 12% increase the previous day, reaching a historical high [3] - According to Gao Feng, Chief Analyst of the Electronic Industry at China Galaxy Securities, the global semiconductor market showed significant recovery, with a market size of USD 346 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year growth, driven by AI infrastructure investment and terminal application demand [5] - The domestic market size is expected to reach RMB 102.6 billion by 2025, with SMIC playing a crucial role in the expansion of mature processes and local supply chains [5] Sector Performance - The performance of tech stocks in Hong Kong was mixed, with Alibaba-W (09988.HK) opening up by 1%, while Bilibili-W (09626.HK) opened down over 2%, and JD Group-SW (09618.HK) and Baidu Group (09888.HK) both fell by over 1% [7] - Stablecoin concept stocks were active, with Yunfeng Financial (00376.HK) rising over 4%, while gold stocks retreated, with Shandong Gold (01787.HK) down over 2%, and automotive stocks weakened, with Xpeng Motors-W (09868.HK) down over 2% [7] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities' recent report indicates that since 2010, the Hang Seng Index has had an 86.7% probability of rising during the National Day holiday, with a median increase of 2.1%, which is higher than the performance during the May Day holiday [8] - The historical trend shows a clear pattern of "pre-holiday defense - mid-holiday rise - post-holiday switch," with significant inflows into consumer and defensive sectors before the holiday, followed by a broad market rally during the holiday [8] - However, there is a noted short-term risk, as the probability of a decline on the first trading day after the National Day holiday has been high historically [8]