中芯国际 20251114 摘要 中芯国际 2025 年第三季度收入达 14.3 亿美元，EBITDA 利润率高达 60%，归属于公司的应占利润为 1.92 亿美元，显示出强劲的盈利能力。 截至 2025 年第三季度末，公司总资产为 494 亿美元，总负债 164 亿美 元，总权益 331 亿美元，有息债务权益比为 34.8%，财务结构稳健。 2025 年第三季度，中国区收入绝对值环比增长 11%，主要受益于产业 链切换加速和国内市场需求扩大，公司调整产能分配以支援紧急需求。 2025 年第三季度毛利率为 22%，环比上升 1.6 个百分点，主要得益于 产能利用率上升和产出增加，抵消了折旧上升的影响。 公司预计 2025 年第四季度销售收入将环比持平或增长 2%，毛利率预 计在 18%至 20%之间，全年销售收入预计超过 90 亿美元。 28 纳米超低功耗逻辑工艺已进入量产阶段，同时在图像传感器 （CIS）、信号处理（ISP）和嵌入式存储平台等多个技术平台取得稳步 提升。 尽管阿斯麦预测中国客户营收占比回落，但国内晶圆制造业扩展速度仍 然很快，尤其是在存储器、逻辑电路等领域，中国客户替代速度加快。 Q&A 中 ...

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment & Foundry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global semiconductor industry experienced unexpected growth in Q3, driven by increased capital expenditure overseas, with expectations for continued high growth into 2026. AI demand is a key driver, but its sustainability will determine how long this semiconductor cycle remains elevated [1][2][3] Key Company Insights TSMC - TSMC's Q3 performance significantly outpaced the industry average, with revenue growth around 40% and gross margin nearing 60%. The strong demand for AI has led TSMC to increase its capital expenditure. The High-Performance Computing (HPC) segment now accounts for over 50% of its revenue, indicating that AI has become a dominant force in the high-end market. If AI growth continues, TSMC's revenue and profit margins have room for further increases [3][4] UMC and SMIC - The consumer electronics sector remains weak, with UMC and other overseas foundries underperforming. In contrast, SMIC benefits from domestic opportunities, achieving high capacity utilization and exceeding expected gross margins. Q4 revenue is projected to grow sequentially, with a year-on-year growth rate close to 10% [5][6] Hua Hong - Hua Hong focuses on industrial and automotive sectors, experiencing rapid growth due to accelerated domestic production. Its growth rate exceeds that of SMIC at around 20%, with high capacity utilization and significant margin improvements. As the largest power analog MCU foundry in China, Hua Hong's future outlook is positive [6][7] Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The semiconductor equipment sector is lagging behind the industry cycle, but capacity shortages are driving increased investment in equipment. Companies like TSMC have raised capital expenditures, and memory manufacturers are expected to expand further next year, enhancing the industry's outlook. Equipment growth is projected to exceed 20% starting in the second half of 2024 [8][9] Market Dynamics - The global foundry and semiconductor equipment markets performed well in Q3, driven by AI investment demand in overseas markets and strong demand for mature process foundries in the domestic market. The overall semiconductor growth in Q3 was again above expectations, with rising capital expenditures anticipated for 2026 [2][10] Storage Industry Insights - The storage industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to strong sales from Apple and rapid growth in the AI market, leading to a shortage of storage chips. This situation is expected to persist until at least the second half of 2026, despite potential acceleration in domestic production [13][14] Future Trends - The semiconductor equipment industry's growth is expected to continue, with historical cycles indicating a 50% increase in demand following each expansion phase. The current industry size is over $120 billion, with projections for growth to $150 billion in the next cycle [9][12] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust cycle driven by AI demand, with key players like TSMC and SMIC capitalizing on domestic opportunities. The equipment sector is poised for growth, and the storage market is currently constrained, indicating a complex but promising landscape for investors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]

14 November 2025 | 11:49PM HKT Equity Research SMIC (0981.HK): Higher visibility of order and operation efficiency; 4Q25 Rev QoQ uptrend; Raising TP to HK$134.0/ Rmb241.6; Buy SMIC's 3Q25 results beat our estimates and Bloomberg consensus (report link). We reiterate our positive view on SMIC, expecting it to continue revenues uptrend in 4Q25 (in-line with company's guidance of +0%~+2% QoQ). GM guidance of 18%~20% in 4Q25 was the same as the last quarter, slightly lower than our previous expectations. Near t ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Companies Involved - **Industry**: Semiconductor and Storage Industry - **Companies**: - SMIC (中芯国际) - Industrial Fulian (工业富联) - Nvidia - TSMC (台积电) - Micron - SK Hynix - Lam Research - Tokyo Electron - Xiaomi - Lenovo - Samsung - Kioxia - Western Digital - Huahong (华虹) Key Points and Arguments AI Demand and Market Impact - AI computing demand is surging, benefiting companies like Nvidia, TSMC, SMIC, and Industrial Fulian, but rising storage prices are expected to decrease the gross margins of Chinese smartphone manufacturers by 3%-4% [1][2] - Component shortages are impacting the shipment volumes of smartphone and automotive manufacturers, particularly in the first half of 2025 [1][2] Storage Market Dynamics - Storage companies are hesitant to expand production due to concerns over the AI bubble and past losses in NAND business, leading to a forecast of continued NAND price increases in the first half of 2025 [1][5] - Major overseas storage companies like Micron and SK Hynix are expected to achieve operating profit margins of up to 70% next year, while equipment suppliers like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron will also benefit [1][8] SMIC's Business Outlook - SMIC's business structure is expected to change significantly by 2026, with consumer business affected by storage shortages, but increased demand in computing sectors may offset this decline [1][6] - The company is making steady progress in advanced processes and localization, benefiting from AI-related expectations and capacity releases in southern China [1][3] Industrial Fulian's Performance - Industrial Fulian is projected to sell over 100,000 cabinets by 2026, significantly enhancing profitability, with a net profit exceeding 10 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [1][7][14] Price Disparities in Memory Products - The price difference between HBM3 (approximately $14 per GB) and LPDDR5 (approximately $1.5 to $1.6 per GB) is nearly tenfold, leading manufacturers to favor HBM production, which is driving up prices for server ESSD and encroaching on the NAND market share for smartphones [1][10][11] Global Semiconductor Industry Trends - The overall cabinet delivery quantity is expected to exceed 100,000 by 2026, with Nvidia contributing 20 million GPUs, indicating a potential growth of two to three times compared to 2025 [1][17] - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to experience some fluctuations in revenue in the first half of 2026, but product prices are expected to rise due to increased AI-related demand and the release of advanced process capacities [1][18] Challenges and Opportunities in the Storage Market - The storage market faces challenges such as cautious expansion from NAND manufacturers due to past losses, but there is still significant upside potential in NAND and DRAM markets driven by high-value ESSD server flash demand [1][22] Future of Domestic Equipment Enterprises - Domestic equipment companies in China are expected to see strong capital expenditure growth, with a current localization rate of about 22%-23% [1][21] Consumer Electronics and AI Industry Trends - If AI shipment volumes achieve a 50% growth target, it will boost the performance and stock prices of companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and Industrial Fulian, while the consumer electronics sector may face pressure [1][23] Conclusion - The semiconductor and storage industries are at a pivotal moment, with AI demand driving growth but also presenting challenges such as rising costs and supply chain issues. Companies like SMIC and Industrial Fulian are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while the overall market dynamics will continue to evolve in response to technological advancements and consumer demand shifts.

腾讯 2025 年 AI 领域资本开支增加，采取稳健投资策略，AI 训练模型迭 代为其游戏和广告业务带来增长，国内算力发展稍慢于国外。 投资建议关注 LAND、D-LAN 和 Norflash 市场紧缺趋势，推荐模组相 关企业；看好通用人工智能算力需求增长，关注中芯国际、华虹公司等； 看好 AIPCB 产业链标的。 DRAM 市场具有高度垄断性，下游厂商接受涨价是关键因素。目前下游厂商如 小米、OPPO、vivo 等库存较低，这表明未来涨价可能会落实到手机终端。此 外，今年四季度及明年一季度涨价趋势依然存在。 NAND 市场供不应求趋势有望持续 20251116 摘要 铠侠二季度营业利润虽超预期指引，但低于市场预期，引发短期负面情 绪，但预计至 2026 年 NAND 市场仍将供不应求，存储市场增长周期未 结束。 铠侠预计三季度营收 5,000-5,500 亿日元，non-GAAP 营业利润 1,000-1,400 亿日元，虽价格未完全上涨，但已反映存储需求强劲，闪 迪和三星数据亦显示积极趋势。 NAND 和 DRAM 市场高度垄断，下游厂商接受涨价是关键。小米、 OPPO、vivo 等库存较低，未来涨价或落 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Previously, the report was bullish on technology, but since mid - October, it has shifted towards a more balanced view. Based on high - frequency fund tracking and institutional behavior, it assesses the year - end market. For example, it mentioned in the report on October 12 that in the short term, it's advisable to adjust the structure, pay attention to finance (bank + insurance), and there may be rotations in the technology sector. As of November 14, banks and insurance have risen by 8.8% and 8.7% respectively, while technology sectors like electronics, communication, and computer have shown relatively poor performance [4]. - The recent capital behavior consistently tends towards balanced allocation. The reasons are the resonance of domestic and foreign risk - aversion sentiment and the year - end profit - taking demand of absolute - return institutions. Currently, the equity market is in the process of style re - balancing, and risk - averse funds may temporarily flow into industries weakly or negatively correlated with technology, such as finance, chemical industry in the pro - cyclical sector, and innovative drugs under the warming of the Sino - US narrative. The report also anticipates that the time for the next style to refocus on technology may be within this year [5][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asset Price Performance - **Global Assets**: In the week from November 10 - 14, 2025, most overseas stock markets rose, bond markets adjusted, non - ferrous metal prices increased, and the US dollar depreciated. US bonds fell significantly, while Chinese bonds remained relatively stable. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metal prices turning from decline to rise and crude oil prices falling. The US dollar index declined, and the RMB and Hong Kong dollar appreciated relatively. In the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index had relatively large declines, resonating with the US Nasdaq Index [13][14]. - **Risk - Aversion Sentiment**: The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose this week, reaching the pressure level of 20 on Thursday, indicating an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [16]. - **A - share Market**: - **Index Performance**: Most broad - based indices fell this week. The STAR 50 (-3.8%) and ChiNext Index (-3.0%) led the decline, while the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index performed well, rising 4.1%. The dividend index, although slightly down (-0.02%), outperformed the broader market. After the National Day holiday, market volatility increased significantly, and the STAR Market, ChiNext, and micro - cap and dividend stocks often acted as two ends of a seesaw [19][21]. - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of major broad - based indices showed a slight increase overall, with most indices' average daily trading volume at a level similar to that in mid - August. Different indices had different trading volume trends, with the micro - cap stock index continuing to increase in volume and the STAR 50 significantly reducing in volume [25]. - **Industry Performance**: The top five rising industries were comprehensive (8.5%), basic chemicals (5.1%), commerce and retail (4.8%), textile and apparel (4.6%), and petroleum and petrochemical (3.7%), beauty care (3.5%). The industries with the largest declines were electronics, communication, and computer. The technology industry has been adjusting for two consecutive weeks, and the decline widened this week [27]. - **Technology Sector**: Since October, only a limited number of technology sectors have outperformed the Wind All - A Index. Specifically, controllable nuclear fusion, solid - state batteries, and storage have certain excess returns. This week, most sub - sectors in the technology sector fell, with rotations around storage, semiconductors, and solid - state batteries. The trading volume of the technology sector soared on Monday and Tuesday and declined marginally on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Only semiconductors, storage, controllable nuclear fusion, and solid - state batteries had trading volumes higher than the average from August to September [32][37]. Fund Behavior Tracking - **Technology Weakening, Micro - cap and Dividend Reaching New Highs**: After the National Day, the STAR Market and ChiNext ended their unilateral upward trend since July and entered a wide - range shock. Micro - cap stocks, after a sideways shock since August, started to rise and continuously reached new highs this year. This week, the STAR Market and ChiNext fell significantly, while micro - cap stocks rose sharply, and micro - cap and dividend stocks reached new highs again [43]. - **Margin Trading Funds**: - **Trading Activity**: As of Thursday this week, the proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover increased from 10.9% to 11.1%, indicating a slight increase in margin trading activity. The A - share margin trading balance on Thursday was approximately 2.51 trillion, a slight increase, and the proportion of margin trading balance in A - share market capitalization was approximately 2.54%, a decrease compared to last Friday [48]. - **Flow Direction**: In the past two weeks, margin trading funds and ETF funds mainly showed net outflows. From Monday to Thursday, margin trading funds flowed out of broad - market indices and the STAR 50 and flowed into small - and medium - cap stocks. This week, there were bottom - fishing funds in ETFs, especially on Friday, when the net inflow scale of the CSI 300 and the STAR Market and ChiNext was relatively large [53]. - **Market - Capitalization - Based Behavior**: This week, stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion added leverage, while those with a market capitalization between 100 billion and 500 billion reduced leverage. Stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion had a large variance in margin trading, with CATL, Zhongji Innolight, and BYD contributing most of the net margin trading purchases this week, while Cambricon, Kweichow Moutai, etc. had net margin trading sales [57]. - **Industry - Based Behavior**: This week, the industries with the largest proportion of net margin trading purchases in turnover were non - ferrous metals and chemicals. The industries with the largest month - on - month increase in the proportion of net margin trading purchases in turnover were non - ferrous metals, banks, home appliances, building materials, and non - bank financials, which were industries that reduced leverage significantly last week. After the National Day, basic chemicals and pharmaceutical biology have added leverage for six consecutive weeks [61]. - **Hot - Stock Behavior**: From the perspective of the proportion of net margin trading purchases in the market capitalization of hot stocks, most hot stocks in the power equipment, electronics, and chemical industries added leverage. The average proportion of margin trading funds in the top 35 hot stocks rose to 0.39% this week from 0.35% and 0.23% in the past two weeks. From the perspective of the proportion of net margin trading purchases in the turnover of hot stocks, most hot stocks in the power equipment, electronics, and chemical industries added leverage. In the power equipment field, stocks such as CATL, Huasheng Lithium, and Juhua Technology had a large proportion of net margin trading purchases in turnover, exceeding 10%. The average proportion of margin trading funds in the top 35 hot stocks rose to 2.65% this week from 1.51% and 0.67% in the past two weeks [63][70]. - **Quantitative Funds**: - **Excess Return**: In the last week of October, the excess returns of quantitative index - enhancing funds were negative, with the excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index - enhancing funds being -0.9% and -1.0% respectively. In the past two weeks, the excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index - enhancing funds have risen to 2.6% and 1.3% respectively [72]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis discount of stock index futures has narrowed in the near - term contracts and widened in the far - term contracts, but it still remains at a relatively high level [77]

Group 1 - SMIC reported Q3 revenue of $2.382 billion, a 7.8% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 9.7% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $315 million, reflecting a significant 115.1% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 41.3% year-over-year growth, driven by increased wafer sales and optimized product mix [1] - For Q4, despite being a traditional off-season, SMIC expects revenue to remain flat to grow by 2% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20% [1] - TSMC is actively expanding its AI capacity, planning to raise prices for advanced processes starting January 2026, with an average price increase of 3%-5% over four years, reflecting rising production costs and capital expenditures [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing robust demand, particularly in AI, with companies like NVIDIA and AMD actively securing capacity for 2026 [1] - The demand for AI-related products is expected to drive significant growth in the ASIC market, with companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft anticipated to see explosive growth in ASIC quantities from 2026 to 2027 [1] - The PCB industry is also benefiting from strong AI demand, with many AI-PCB companies reporting robust orders and full production capacity, indicating high growth potential for Q4 and next year [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controllable beneficiary industries [4][27]. Core Insights - SMIC reported a Q3 revenue of $2.382 billion, a 7.8% increase from Q2 and a 9.7% increase year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 115.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - TSMC is expanding its AI capacity aggressively, with a planned price increase for advanced processes starting in 2026, reflecting a long-term pricing strategy [1]. - The demand for AI continues to be strong, with expectations of explosive growth in ASIC numbers from major tech companies by 2026-2027 [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer Electronics - Apple launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AR glasses, with strong pre-order demand [5]. - The AI edge computing market is expected to see significant new product launches from 2025 to 2026, benefiting from Apple's integrated hardware and software advantages [5]. 1.2 PCB - Despite a slight decline in shipments due to the October holiday, the overall industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by automotive and industrial applications [7]. - The report anticipates continued high demand for AI-related PCBs, with many companies expanding production [4][7]. 1.3 Components - The AI data center's demand is expected to enhance the valuation of passive components, with increased usage of MLCCs in mobile devices [18]. - LCD panel prices have stabilized, and production control measures are in place to maintain price levels [18]. 1.4 IC Design - The report is optimistic about the memory sector, predicting a price increase for DRAM due to rising demand from cloud service providers [20][23]. - The overall memory market is entering a clear upward trend, supported by both supply and demand factors [23]. 1.5 Semiconductor Foundry, Equipment, Materials, and Components - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a trend of de-globalization, with increased focus on domestic supply chains [24]. - The demand for advanced packaging is strong, driven by the need for AI computing capabilities [24][25]. Key Companies - SMIC's Q3 utilization rate reached 95.8%, with a positive outlook for Q4 [27]. - TSMC is expanding its 3nm process capacity and implementing a price increase strategy starting in 2026 [27]. - Companies like BeiGene, Longi Green Energy, and others are highlighted as beneficiaries of the AI and semiconductor trends [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the A-shares and H-shares of the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The demand driven by domestic substitution and AI continues to be robust, with the company benefiting from increased market share in various sectors [2]. - The company is expected to accelerate capacity expansion in 2026 due to high utilization rates and ongoing demand [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with projected net profits of $735 million, $1.101 billion, and $1.321 billion respectively, reflecting significant growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $2.382 billion, with a gross margin of 22%, and net profit of $315 million, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $2.38 billion and $2.43 billion, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal factors [1]. Demand and Market Trends - The overall demand remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance leading to increased orders [2]. - The trend of domestic substitution is enhancing the company's order volume and market share, particularly in sectors like analog chips and memory [2]. Capacity and Utilization - The utilization rate in Q3 2025 was 95.8%, with wafer shipments reaching 2.4995 million pieces [3]. - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $2.39 billion, with expectations for continued investment to support capacity expansion [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upwards for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 3.5x for H-shares and 6.2x for A-shares [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.7%, 24.8%, and 22.0% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The domestic electronic sector continues to face pressure, with a notable decline in the electronic industry index by 4.44% this week, driven by factors such as the US tech stock pullback and ongoing storage price increases [3][4] - AI demand remains strong, leading to significant price hikes in storage, with Samsung increasing certain memory chip prices by 60% this month [5] - The North American data center construction is hindered by power shortages, impacting AI infrastructure development [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic industry index fell by 4.44% this week, with consumer electronics down 5.49% and semiconductors down 3.97% [3] - US tech stocks showed a slight recovery after the government shutdown ended, with notable gains from companies like Nvidia and AMD [3] Industry Updates - Domestic chip production is accelerating, with new product iterations and significant developments in AI-related hardware [4] - The AI glasses market saw a tenfold increase in sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on technology sectors that have seen significant corrections but have potential catalysts, including companies like SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and others [6]