当全球科技巨头疯狂"买买买"，把成百上千亿美元砸向AI数据中心时，一位中国芯片大佬却站了出来，冷冷地泼了一盆冰水 这句话出自中芯国际联席CEO赵海军之口。就在几天前，他在财报电话会议上发出了一个振聋发聩的警告：全球AI数据中心的盲目扩张，正在酝酿一场可 能是AI时代最大的泡沫。 让我们先来看一组令人窒息的数据。 亚马逊，2000亿美元；谷歌，1800亿美元；Meta，1250亿美元；微软，1050亿美元——这四家科技巨头仅2026年一年的资本支出，合计就将高达6600亿美 元（约合4.6万亿元人民币）。而穆迪评级的预测更加惊人：未来五年，全球AI相关基础设施支出可能超过3万亿美元。 这是什么概念？相当于全球主要国家一年的军费总和，相当于建造30座三峡大坝，足够给全世界每个人发400美元。 中国的互联网大厂们也不甘落后。阿里巴巴将未来三年投入AI基建与云计算的预算从3800亿元提升至4800亿元，字节跳动2026年资本支出预计达1600亿 元。所有人都像打了鸡血一样，疯狂圈地、抢购芯片、建设数据中心。 但问题来了：建这么多数据中心，到底要用来干什么？ 赵海军在业绩会上点出了这场狂欢中最荒谬的一幕："当前众多企业 ...

全球为AI基建狂烧3万亿美元，就没人停下想一句：到底需不需要这么多？中芯国际联席CEO赵海军打 开了这场热潮背后的真问题——全世界正急着盖"数字金字塔"，可谁在用、怎么用、用得值不值，没人 说得清楚。那3万亿美元投入，到底是投资，还是集体催眠？ 赵海军这次"不合时宜"的冷静发声，是在中芯国际2025年全年财报发布会。他没有去讲AI有多革命，而 是直面一个行业都不愿提的现实：数据中心投资，正跑在了现实需求的前头，且速度失控。 今年全球AI基建投资将突破6500亿美元，如果把这股风刮到2028年，全球累计投入可能突破3万亿美 元，超过整个德国2025年GDP的体量。如此庞大的算盘背后，逻辑却很简单：怕落后，怕掉队，要跟上 AI"第二次工业革命"的节奏。 但赵海军反问得很精彩："我们真的知道建这些数据中心，是为了什么吗？" 在他看来，诸如Alphabet、Meta、微软、亚马逊等数字巨头，正在用过去十年的资源，为未来两年的竞 赛做准备。这看上去很有远见，实则透露出一种集体恐慌下的盲目扩张。 市面热炒的高性能GPU，价格都是按万来算的，一块A100、H100单价值个中档车，可它们的"经济寿 命"短得离谱。英伟达每年换 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry, with a focus on specific stocks such as 香农芯创, 东山精密, 兆易创新, 北方华创, 中微公司, and 胜宏科技 [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models from Alibaba and ByteDance, which are expected to drive a substantial increase in computing power demand, particularly in video generation applications [2][12]. - The NAND market is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI-related data center demands, with a forecasted bit shipment growth rate of approximately 17%-19% for 2026 [3][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Model Releases and Computing Demand - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model integrates image generation and editing, supporting 1K token inputs and 2K resolution, enhancing performance significantly [13][15]. - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 model, released on February 12, 2026, demonstrates a 3-5 times increase in computing power consumption compared to standard video generation models, indicating a shift towards more computationally intensive applications [19][20]. Section 2: Kioxia's Financial Performance - Kioxia reported a record revenue of 543.6 billion JPY (approximately 3.5 billion USD) for FY25Q3, marking a 21.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) and bit shipments [46][47]. - The company anticipates full-year revenue for FY25 to be between 2.18 trillion JPY and 2.27 trillion JPY, with a focus on increasing the proportion of data center and enterprise SSD shipments [58][61]. Section 3: Semiconductor Industry Trends - The report notes that domestic AI applications are transitioning from "technology development" to "scaled deployment," which is expected to inject strong momentum into the domestic AI computing industry [2][12]. - SMIC's Q4 2025 revenue reached 2.489 billion USD, a 12.8% year-over-year increase, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing business structure [25][31]. Section 4: Related Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key stocks and sectors for investment, including computing chips, interconnect chips, storage modules, semiconductor equipment, and materials, highlighting companies like 寒武纪, 中微公司, and 香农芯创 [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry, with a focus on specific stocks such as 香农芯创, 东山精密, 兆易创新, 北方华创, 中微公司, and 胜宏科技 [6][62]. Core Insights - The release of AI models by Alibaba and ByteDance is expected to significantly increase the demand for computing power, particularly in video generation applications, which are more resource-intensive than text generation [2][12]. - The report highlights that the domestic AI applications are transitioning from "technology development" to "scaled deployment," indicating a robust demand for AI computing resources [2][12]. - Kioxia reported record revenue of 543.6 billion yen (approximately 3.547 billion USD) for FY25Q3, driven by increased average selling prices (ASP) and bit shipments, with expectations for continued growth in the NAND market due to AI-driven demand [3][46][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Model Releases and Computing Power Demand - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model integrates image generation and editing, supporting 1K token input and 2K resolution, enhancing performance significantly [1][13]. - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 model, released on February 12, 2026, demonstrates a 3-5 times increase in computing power consumption compared to standard video generation models, addressing complex motion and interaction scenarios [2][19][20]. Section 2: Kioxia's Financial Performance - Kioxia's FY25Q3 revenue reached a historical high of 543.6 billion yen, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 21.3%, attributed to increased ASP and bit shipments [3][46]. - The company anticipates FY25 revenue between 2.18 trillion yen and 2.27 trillion yen, with a focus on data center and enterprise SSD shipments driving profitability [3][61]. Section 3: Related Stocks and Market Opportunities - The report identifies several key stocks in the semiconductor and AI sectors, including companies involved in computing power chips, storage modules, and semiconductor equipment, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [62][63].

成交额前三的个股中，腾讯控股跌0.65%，成交超142亿港元；阿里巴巴跌2.02%，成交超108亿港元； 美团跌3.18%，成交超81亿港元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经香港2月13日电（记者林迎楠）13日港股主要指数低开后弱势整理，截至收盘，恒生指数下跌 1.72%至26567.12点，恒生科技指数下跌0.90%至5360.42点，国企指数下跌1.55%至9032.71点。 当日恒指低开392.38点，开报26640.16点，开盘后有所反弹便开始震荡下行，午后先降后升，最终恒指 跌465.42点，主板成交超2575亿港元。当日，港股通（南向）净流入超202亿港元。 整体来看，芯片、百货业等股多为上涨，新消费、新能源汽车、电信等股有涨有跌，黄金、有色金属、 生物医药、港口运输、科网、石油与天然气、券商、银行等股多有下跌。 个股方面，小米集团涨0.88%，友邦保险跌4.18%，紫金矿业跌7.64%，香港交易所跌2.13%，中芯国际 涨0.79%，携程集团-S跌2.10%，泡泡玛特跌1.90%，天数智芯涨14.59%，智谱涨20.65%，建设银行跌 1.49%，华润置地跌2.52%，老铺黄金跌3.97%，国 ...

我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 | 分类 | 公司 | 2025年营收 | 同比 | 业务表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | TI | 176.8亿美元 | 13% | 各终端市场，均增长 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | ST | 118亿美元 | -11% | 下滑11%, 分化明显 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | NXP | 122.7亿美元 | -3% | Q4所有终端市场环比改善 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | 瑞欧 | 1.3212万亿日元 | 2% | 时隔6年转为亏损 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | Microchip | | | 新财季同比、环比均增长 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | Qorvo | | | 营收超预期 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | 安森美 | | | 三部门下滑均超10% | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | 英语 | | | 人工智能需求强劲 | | 模拟/混合信号芯片 | 思瑞浦 | | ...

Seedance 2.0 走向更广阔平台，使用频次、深度有望长期提升。该模型的核心 使用方式简单易操作，用户在豆包 App 对话框找到新增的"Seedance 2.0"入 口，输入提示词即可生成 5 秒或 10 秒视频；也可选择"分身视频"功能，完成真 人活体验证后创建个人专属视频分身，解锁更多创意玩法，不过目前暂不支持上 传真人图片作为视频主体参考，若要使用真人形象需本人验证或取得授权。 Seedance 2.0 具备多项核心能力，支持原声音画同步、多镜头长叙事、多模态可 控生成，可接受文本、图片等多模态输入，搭配提示词和参考图就能生成带完整 原生音轨的多镜头视频；模型能自动解析叙事逻辑，让生成镜头序列的角色、光 影、风格与氛围保持高度统一，还解决了传统 AI 视频人物突变、音画不同步等行 业痛点。 在使用频次、深度有望长期提升的趋势下，重视多模态给算力端的重要拉动。 分析师：吕伟 分析师：郭新宇 执业证书：S0590525110033 执业证书：S0590525110034 邮箱：lvwei_yj@glms.com.cn 邮箱：guoxinyu@glms.com.cn 事件：2026 年 2 月 12 日 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 202.19 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 114.77 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 87.43 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2] - The most net bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Alibaba-W (09988), and Tencent (00700), while the most net sold stocks were Longi Green Energy (601869) and CNOOC (00883) [2][8] - Northbound trading showed significant interest in semiconductor stocks, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) and SMIC (00981) receiving net purchases of 8.46 billion HKD and 5.73 billion HKD respectively [6] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 22.00 billion HKD, with total trading volume reaching 35.63 billion HKD [3] - Alibaba-W (09988) received a net inflow of 20.13 billion HKD, with a total trading volume of 28.70 billion HKD [3] - Meituan-W (03690) saw a net inflow of 10.35 billion HKD, with a total trading volume of 14.60 billion HKD [3] Group 3 - Huahong Semiconductor reported a fourth-quarter revenue of 659.9 million USD, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 13.0% and a net profit of 34.1 million USD, reversing a previous loss [6] - SMIC also reported strong performance, contributing to the positive sentiment in the semiconductor sector [6] - CNOOC (00883) faced a net outflow of 1.43 billion HKD amid geopolitical tensions and market shifts towards supply-demand dynamics [7]

技術座標揭示合理邊界 成交分布印證博弈心態 全日成交額243,367千港元中，遠價外區間獨佔112,840千元（46.37%），中價外區間貢獻56,909千元 （23.38%），合計69.75%成交集中於技術阻力位上方，顯示資金過度集中於突破博弈。 條款競爭力顯現結構效率落差 中價外區間展現相對較佳風險回報特性，平均引伸波幅53.90%，配合4.76倍槓桿，提供較合理平衡。價 內主力區間雖具備52.68%引伸波幅與3.39倍槓桿的效率優勢，但產品數量僅8隻限制實際操作彈性。遠 價外區間雖有5.35倍槓桿的表面優勢，但引伸波幅高達59.11%，推升持倉成本，加上流動性不足，顯示 成本與預期回報空間出現嚴重錯配。 市場結構隱含系統性風險 以中芯國際現價69.6元為基準，技術分析劃定明確活動範圍：主要支持位68.3元與下試區域62.7元構成 下行防線，主要阻力位75.2元與上望目標80.4元定義上行空間。在此框架下，行使價62.7-75.2元區間屬 於技術合理範圍，而當前市場結構顯示顯著偏離理性邊界。 行使價分布凸顯結構失衡 市場現存145隻認購證呈現明顯結構分化：深價內區間（41.50-62.93元）30隻產品提 ...

机构：光大证券 研究员：付天姿/董馨悦 事件：4Q25营收超预期，1Q26指引偏谨慎。4Q25收入24.89亿美元，YoY+12.8%，QoQ+4.5%，超过此 前公司23.8~24.3亿美元指引区间的上限，超过市场预期的24.2亿美元。其中，晶圆出货量YoY+26.3%， QoQ+0.6%；晶圆ASP YoY-10.8%，QoQ+0.8%。4Q25毛利率19.2%，YoY-3.4pct，QoQ-2.8pct，符合公 司18%~20%的指引区间，略低于市场预期的20%，主要系折旧上升。4Q25净利润2.03亿美元，YoY- 24.9%，QoQ-35.5%，其中4Q归母净利润1.73亿美元，非控制性权益0.31亿美元，YoY-81.3%，QoQ- 75.3%。2025全年盈利水平修复。2025年实现营收93.27亿美元，创历史新高，YoY+16.2%；毛利率 21%，YoY+3.0pct。2025年归母净利润6.85亿美元，YoY+39.1%。1Q26指引相对谨慎。1Q26指引收入环 比持平，对应YoY+10.7%；指引毛利率18%~20%，低于市场预期的20.9%。2026全年指引方面，公司预 计营收同比增速 ...