Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][48]. Core Viewpoints - The NAND market is expected to continue experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, driven by increasing demand from AI-related applications and data centers [2][5]. - The report highlights the strong performance of key companies in the semiconductor sector, with significant revenue growth and optimistic forecasts for future quarters [9][10][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Kioxia reported a revenue of 448.3 billion JPY for FY25Q2, a 30.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher bit shipments and AI-related NAND demand [9]. - SMIC achieved a revenue of 17.162 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a 6.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit growth of 43.1% year-on-year [10][11]. - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached approximately 192.87 billion CNY, a 15% year-on-year increase, with all main segments showing double-digit growth [12]. - Cisco's Q1 FY2026 revenue grew by 8% year-on-year to 14.9 billion USD, with a notable increase in AI infrastructure orders [13]. Market Review - The electronic industry experienced a weekly decline of 4.77% from November 10 to November 14, 2025, with the semiconductor sector showing mixed performance [14][15]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell from 7,156.95 points to 6,811.20 points during the same period, although it remains in an upward trend since April 2025 [19]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The prices of various memory products, including DDR5 and DDR4, have shown an upward trend from November 10 to November 14, 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [28]. - The report provides detailed price forecasts for TV and IT panels, with expectations of price stability in certain segments and declines in others due to supply-demand dynamics [24][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the entire storage industry chain, recommending key stocks such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Demingli, and Jiangbolong [44]. - It emphasizes the potential of AI to drive growth across the semiconductor value chain, suggesting a focus on companies involved in design, manufacturing, and materials [44].

插图： Carl Godfrey 作者：沙伊莱什·奇特尼斯，《经济学人》全球商业撰稿人 2025年1月，中国鲜为人知的初创企业DeepSeek推出了一款人工智能模型，其性能可与美国研发的产品媲美，震惊全 球。更引人注目的是，该模型的研发过程并未使用美国企业英伟达的尖端人工智能芯片——这一事实印证了中国围绕 限制开展创新的决心。2026年，惊喜将不再来自代码，而是源自芯片本身。中国企业将在两个长期被认为难以企及的 领域取得突破：设计和制造高性能人工智能芯片。 美国自2019年起开始限制先进芯片及芯片制造设备的出口，旨在减缓中国的崛起势头。然而，这些限制反而激发了中 国追求自主可控的动力。打造本土芯片产业（尤其是人工智能所用处理器领域）的难度众所周知。制造这类芯片需要 先进的光刻机，用于在硅片上蚀刻电路。但全球领先的光刻机生产商、荷兰企业阿斯麦（ASML）被禁止向中国出售 此类设备。这导致中国企业难以生产特征尺寸为7纳米及以下的先进芯片，但它们正充分利用已有的设备资源。 China's chip industry will surprise the world 在芯片设计与制造领域，中国正围绕限制实现创新 中国实 ...

港股半導體板塊近期暗流湧動，中芯國際（00981）股價在75元關口展開激烈攻防。今日股價報75.75元，上漲0.13%。當前技術形態呈現多空對峙格局，多項指標發出 矛盾信號，為短線交易者帶來獨特的佈局機會。 從技術層面深入分析，中芯目前處於關鍵的三角整理末端。股價在71元至79.5元區間內反覆震盪，中期重要支持位下移至65.6元，而上行重要阻力位則位於 85.6元。均線系統呈現糾結狀態，股價勉強站上MA10的74元，但仍在MA30的77.7元之下徘徊，顯示中期趨勢尚未完全轉強。特別值得注意的是，動量震盪 指標發出「超跌可能築底」的買入信號，與MACD的賣出信號形成明顯背離，這種技術面的矛盾正體現了市場對中芯前景的分歧。 | | | 觀察近期窩輪市場表現，衍生產品在正股波動中展現出驚人爆發力。回顧11月7日的交易紀錄，當正股下跌3.71%時，滙豐熊證60096與瑞銀熊證59839均錄 得23%的驚人漲幅，充分顯示在正確判斷市場方向的前提下，衍生工具能夠帶來顯著回報。 對於期待中芯突破的投資者，可重點關注中銀認購證18977，該產品行使價88.88元，提供5.3倍槓桿，且溢價水平相對合理；法巴認購證19088同樣 ...

编辑丨朱益民 在以国产供应链切换叠加AI算力扩张的新一轮半导体周期里，中芯国际（688981.SH）成为市场焦点。 三季度，这家中国大陆最大晶圆代工厂交出了一份颇为亮眼的财报：收入23.82亿美元，同比增长 9.7%、环比增长7.8%，净利润约1.92亿美元，同比增长28.9%；折合8英寸标准逻辑的月产能首次突破百 万片，产能利用率升至95.8%，逼近满产。 记者丨彭新 但与订单满手的现实形成鲜明对比的是，中芯国际对四季度和明年的口径明显克制——收入仅预期环比 持平到增长2%，毛利率预期下调至18%~20%。 在国产供应链切换红利加速兑现、全球存储芯片价格步入超级周期的当下，中芯国际究竟在担心什么？ 国产供应链切换，产能利用率超预期 中芯国际三季度的增长，首先归功于"国产供应链切换"这一主引擎的强劲发动。 在11月14日的业绩电话会上，中芯国际联合首席执行官赵海军指出，增长的核心驱动力来自客户向国产 供应链的切换。财报数据显示，三季度中芯国际来自中国区客户的收入占比已高达86.2%，较二季度的 84.1%进一步提升。 "三季度来自中国区客户的收入绝对值环比增长了11%，"赵海军在电话会中强调，"尤其是国内消费 ...

不过，将视线转向全球第二大代工厂三星时，情况变得微妙。三星作为综合型电子企业，其代工业务包 含大量内部订单，如猎户座Exynos芯片、电视芯片、电源管理芯片及OLED驱动芯片等。据统计，在 2024年第一季度至2025年第二季度期间，三星与中芯国际的市场份额差距持续收窄——从最初相差5个 百分点，到2024年第四季度仅差2个百分点，2025年第二季度也维持在3个百分点左右。 近日，中芯国际公布的2025年三季度财报引发业内关注。这家中国大陆顶尖芯片代工厂当季营收达 171.62亿元，同比增长9.9%，环比增长6.9%，刷新历史最高纪录。 更令人瞩目的是，其净利润实现15.17亿元，同比大幅增长43.1%，毛利率提升至25.5%，较上季度增加 4.8个百分点。产能方面也首次突破百万片大关，折合8英寸晶圆产量达到102.28万片。 当然，尽管成绩亮眼，但与行业龙头台积电相比，中芯国际仍有显著差距。台积电同期营收高达9899.2 亿新台币，折合人民币约2300亿元，是中芯国际的13.4倍；净利润更是达到4523亿新台币，约合人民币 1050亿元，足足是中芯国际的69倍。 这种量级差异客观反映出两岸半导体产业在技术积 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月15日 中芯国际（00981.HK） 优于大市 三季度收入和毛利率超指引上限，产能利用率达 95.8% 3Q25 营收和毛利率超指引上限，预计全年收入超过 90 亿美元。公司 3Q25 实现销售收入 23.82 亿美元（YoY +9.7%，QoQ +7.8%），高于指引(QoQ 5%-7%) 上限，创季度收入新高，晶圆收入占总收入的 95.2%；毛利率为 22.0%(YoY +1.5pct，QoQ +1.6pct)，超指引(18%-20%)上限；归母净利润为 1.92 亿美 元(YoY +28.9%，QoQ +44.7%)；折旧摊销金额为 9.96 亿美元(YoY +19.8%， QoQ +13.3%)。Q4 作为行业淡季，客户备货有所放缓，但产业链迭代效应持 续，淡季不淡，公司产线仍处于供不应求状态，预计 4Q25 营收环比增长 0%-2%，毛利率为 18%-20%，全年收入超 90 亿美元。 三季度产能利用率环比提高 3.3pct，折合 8 英寸晶圆月产能突破百万片。 公司 3Q25 付运折合 8 英寸晶圆 250 万片(YoY +17.8%，QoQ +4.6%)，产能利 ...

在以国产供应链切换叠加AI算力扩张的新一轮半导体周期里，中芯国际（688981.SH）成为市场焦点。 三季度，这家中国大陆最大晶圆代工厂交出了一份颇为亮眼的财报：收入23.82亿美元，同比增长 9.7%、环比增长7.8%，净利润约1.92亿美元，同比增长28.9%；折合8英寸标准逻辑的月产能首次突破百 万片，产能利用率升至95.8%，逼近满产。 但与订单满手的现实形成鲜明对比的是，中芯国际对四季度和明年的口径明显克制——收入仅预期环比 持平到增长2%，毛利率预期下调至18%～20%。 在国产供应链切换红利加速兑现、全球存储芯片价格步入超级周期的当下，中芯国际究竟在担心什么？ 双重因素下，中芯国际的各项运营数据也随之攀高。 国产供应链切换，产能利用率超预期 中芯国际三季度的增长，首先归功于"国产供应链切换"这一主引擎的强劲发动。 在11月14日的业绩电话会上，中芯国际联合首席执行官赵海军指出，增长的核心驱动力来自客户向国产 供应链的切换。财报数据显示，三季度中芯国际来自中国区客户的收入占比已高达86.2%，较二季度的 84.1%进一步提升。 "三季度来自中国区客户的收入绝对值环比增长了11%，"赵海军在电话会中 ...

在产能和产品结构方面，公司披露，截至三季度末，折合八英寸标准逻辑月产能约为102.3万片。按晶圆收入划分，12英寸与8英寸晶圆占比分别为77%和 23%，结构整体保持稳定。晶圆平均销售单价环比提升3.8%，公司解释主要与产品组合变化有关，制程更复杂的产品出货占比有所提高。 （文/罗叶馨梅）11月14日，在中芯国际（688981.SH；00981.HK）2025年第三季度业绩说明会上，联合CEO赵海军表示，四季度虽为传统淡季，但公司给出 的收入指引为环比持平至增长2%，毛利率指引为18%至20%。赵海军称，公司产线整体仍处于供不应求状态，全年销售收入预计将超过90亿美元，今年资本 开支预计与去年大致相当或略高。 三季度公司实现销售收入23.82亿美元，环比增长7.8%；毛利率为22.0%，较上一季度提升1.6个百分点。产能利用率升至95.8%，环比提升3.3个百分点，晶圆 出货量折合八英寸标准逻辑晶圆249.9万片，环比增长4.6%。根据未经审核的财务数据，前三个季度公司收入为68.38亿美元，同比增长17.4%；同期毛利率 为21.6%，资本开支合计57亿美元。 从地区来看，三季度按收入划分，中国、美国及欧亚 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a transformation driven by accelerated technological iteration, supply chain restructuring, and deepening domestic substitution, with advanced process nodes becoming a core growth driver[17] - In Q2 2025, TSMC's revenue reached $30.239 billion, with advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) contributing 24%, 36%, and 14% respectively to its revenue structure[18] - By 2024, China's semiconductor sales are projected to be $182.1 billion, accounting for 29.52% of global sales, while its wafer demand is only 5%, indicating a significant gap in domestic chip design capabilities[30] Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Applications - The AI industry is transitioning into a dual-phase of infrastructure development and deep industry integration, with domestic AI chip production and commercialization being key investment themes[39] - The demand for AI servers is expected to surge, driven by the need for robust computing power, which will enhance the domestic AI infrastructure[7] - AI is anticipated to become a foundational productivity driver in the economy, with significant potential for explosive applications in various sectors[39] Group 3: Nuclear Energy and New Energy Storage - Nuclear power is positioned as a clean and stable energy source, crucial for achieving dual carbon goals, with the industry entering a golden development period focusing on third-generation technology and breakthroughs in fourth-generation technology[7] - New energy storage technologies are rapidly advancing, with installed capacity expected to double under strong policy support, leading to a diversified technological landscape[7] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from state-led initiatives to large-scale commercialization, with significant growth in low-orbit satellite demand and the development of reusable rocket technologies[7] - The pet economy is evolving into a mature market, with a notable shift towards high-end products and domestic brands gaining market share through online channels[8] - The CXO industry is entering a new growth cycle, with China holding nearly 30% of the global market share, driven by innovation in drug development despite geopolitical challenges[8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 12.887 billion HKD from northbound trading on November 14, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 7.273 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect contributing 5.614 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Top Net Buy Stocks - Alibaba-W (09988) received a net inflow of 13.27 billion HKD, with a total buy amount of 35.87 billion HKD and sell amount of 22.61 billion HKD [2] - Tencent (00700) had a net inflow of 10.71 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 29.08 billion HKD and 18.38 billion HKD respectively [2] - SMIC (00981) saw a net inflow of 6.64 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 21.65 billion HKD and 15.01 billion HKD respectively [2] Group 2: Notable Company Developments - Alibaba has secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, aiming to create a personal AI assistant app that competes with ChatGPT, with significant application during the Double 11 shopping festival [5] - Tencent's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, driven by stable growth across major business segments, with AI playing a crucial role in advertising and gaming [5] - SMIC reported third-quarter revenue of 2.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, surpassing market expectations [6] Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Xpeng Motors (09868) received a net inflow of 2.56 billion HKD, with expectations of profitability starting in Q4 and significant AI-driven growth projected for 2026-2027 [6] - China Life (02628) faced a net outflow of 2.61 billion HKD, while China Mobile (00941) saw a net outflow of 579.6 million HKD [7]