邓正红能源软实力：欧佩克增产预期、伊拉克恢复原油供应及美国能源政策调整

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing pressure on oil prices due to increased production expectations and concerns over supply surplus, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1][2] - The U.S. government's potential shutdown poses challenges to demand forecasts for the world's largest economy, while OPEC's upcoming meeting may further exacerbate supply-demand pressures [1][2] - The termination of 223 energy projects by the U.S. Department of Energy, totaling approximately $7.56 billion, primarily affects clean and renewable energy initiatives, particularly in states that supported the Democratic Party in the last presidential election [2] Oil Market Dynamics - As of October 2, 2023, WTI crude oil prices fell by $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, a decrease of 2.10%, while Brent crude oil prices dropped by $1.24 to $64.11 per barrel, a decline of 1.90% [1] - The Iraqi oil ministry announced the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region to Turkey after a two-and-a-half-year interruption, which may influence market dynamics [1] - Analysts suggest that OPEC's consideration of increasing production capacity could lead to heightened geopolitical risks in October, despite a prevailing market sentiment of oversupply by Q4 2025 [1][3] Structural Tensions in Energy Policy - The article highlights a structural tension in the oil market, where traditional supply-demand dynamics are being challenged by geopolitical factors and U.S. energy policy shifts, potentially suppressing oil prices until the end of 2025 [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a paradox of "hard supply surplus and soft control failure," indicating that traditional risk factors are becoming less effective in influencing oil prices [3] - The anticipated increase in OPEC production by 500,000 barrels per day in November reveals a conflict between market share priorities and price stabilization goals [3]