美国政府时隔七年再度关门，分析师：美联储10月降息预期进一步巩固

Group 1 - The U.S. government officially shut down on October 2, marking the first closure in seven years, adding uncertainty to the U.S. economy and financial markets, and potentially reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [1] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown persists for several days, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his team may lean towards adopting a more accommodative monetary policy due to the dual challenges of a weak labor market and high inflation [1] - The delay in the release of key employment data, originally scheduled for Friday, will significantly complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to formulate monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Bank of America analyzed that if the government shutdown continues until the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, decision-makers may support a rate cut based on two main reasons [2] - The first reason is that only a strong September employment report would allow the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in October; without this data, Chairman Powell may favor a "risk management" rate cut [2] - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in October now at 100%, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut at 99% [2]