揭秘A股日历效应 市场有望迎来“红十月”？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market exhibits a "calendar effect," characterized by a pattern of subdued trading before holidays and a high probability of rebound afterward, particularly following the National Day holiday [2]. Group 1: Calendar Effect Explanation - The "calendar effect" refers to abnormal returns and volatility in financial markets associated with specific dates, leading to a pattern of "first suppression, then rise" in the A-share market [2]. - Investors tend to liquidate or reduce positions before holidays to avoid uncertainties during long breaks, resulting in decreased trading volume and noticeable capital outflows [2]. - After the holiday, capital flows back into the market, especially from margin financing, which shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday, explosion after" [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance Data - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a 70% probability of decline in the five trading days before the National Day holiday and a 60% probability of increase in the five trading days after [4]. - The performance of the index before and after the holiday varies, with notable fluctuations in percentage changes across different years [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities Post-Holiday - The A-share market is expected to experience a "red October," with a high probability of a positive opening after the holiday [5]. - Key sectors likely to benefit include cyclical industries such as finance, real estate, and infrastructure, which are closely tied to macroeconomic performance [5]. - Emerging industries like renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors are anticipated to attract market attention and lead the rebound [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to intensify market structural adjustments, with a recommendation for investors to maintain moderate positions and focus on policy direction and fundamental data [6]. - Various brokerage firms suggest that the market may experience a rebalancing process in Q4, with a shift towards cyclical styles and a rotation within technology sectors [7].