普京若卸任，欧洲结局会怎样？

Core Viewpoint - The potential resignation of Putin raises significant questions about the future security landscape in Europe, with various scenarios that could unfold depending on the new leadership in Russia [1][2]. Security Landscape: Three Possible Paths - Hardline Succession: If hardliners like Shoigu take power, Europe may face an escalation of conflict, with potential actions such as cutting off gas supplies and deploying tactical nuclear weapons [3]. - Pragmatic Leadership: A pragmatic government may lead to a temporary easing of tensions, but could exacerbate divisions within the EU and worsen defense challenges as the U.S. may withdraw troops [4]. - Power Vacuum: A power vacuum could lead to uncontrollable situations, with increased military actions from Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the inadequacy of the fragmented European military capabilities [5]. Energy Dynamics: Aftermath of Decoupling - Short-term Risks: Europe remains dependent on Russian fertilizers (34% share) and nuclear fuel, which could lead to agricultural shortages and nuclear power risks if supplies are cut [6][8]. - Long-term Reconfiguration: The shift towards China for Russian oil and gas exports could increase European reliance on the U.S., with American LNG imports to the EU surging to 54% [8][10]. Conclusion - The resignation of Putin may not resolve Europe's challenges but could accelerate trends such as NATO fragmentation, industrial hollowing out, and the illusion of security autonomy [10]. The critical question for Europe is whether to remain a "security appendage" of the U.S. or to forge its own path [10].