黄金价格创下 45 年来最高，预示着什么？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, raises concerns about potential hyperinflation and reflects the fragility of the global economic system [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - In September 2025, spot gold prices exceeded $3,674, and in October, they soared to $3,896, breaking a 45-year record adjusted for inflation [2]. - The current gold bull market has lasted for three years and shows no signs of abating [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The 1970s saw a similar scenario where gold prices rose from $35 to $850 due to monetary collapse, high inflation, and economic recession [4]. - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal pressure, with $1 trillion allocated for debt repayment out of an annual income of approximately $50 trillion [4]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Demand - In 2024, global central bank gold purchases are expected to exceed 1,000 tons, increasing gold's share in official reserves to 20%, surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility and attractiveness of U.S. assets, along with geopolitical risks and concerns over de-globalization, have driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Economic Warnings - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns that the current global situation resembles pivotal moments in the 1930s and 1970s, with debt imbalances and currency devaluation potentially leading to crises [4]. - The trajectory of gold prices is reminiscent of the stagflation period in the 1970s, indicating heightened risks in the financial landscape [4].