Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-03 06:13Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's stock has dropped over 3% following the announcement of its September delivery data, which shows a significant year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries [1] Delivery Performance - In September, Li Auto delivered 33,951 vehicles, representing a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% [1] - This marks the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in deliveries [1] Analyst Insights - HSBC Research released a report indicating that the recently launched mid-to-large five-seat electric SUV, Li Auto i6, has shown strong performance since its release [1] - The report anticipates a significant rebound in the company's sales for the fourth quarter due to the i6's performance [1] Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has maintained a "Buy" rating for Li Auto but has adjusted its sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 22% to 31% due to pressures on EREV model sales and pricing [1] - Correspondingly, earnings forecasts have been reduced by 55%, 42%, and 31% for the respective years [1] - The target price for Li Auto's stock has been lowered from HKD 142 to HKD 118 for the Hong Kong market and from USD 36.5 to USD 30.3 for the U.S. market [1]