dbg盾博：美联储降息节奏如何平衡通胀与就业风险？

Core Insights - The recent statements from Dallas Fed President Logan and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlight the complexities in economic policy-making amid inflation challenges and sticky service prices [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Considerations - The Fed's recent 25 basis point preventive rate cut is seen as an insurance measure against potential labor market risks, with the current policy rate of 4%-4.25% nearing the upper limit of neutral rate estimates [3] - Logan warns that excessive rate cuts could lead to policy reversal risks and complicate the achievement of price stability targets, reflecting a cautious stance within the Fed [3] - The dot plot indicates that most of the 19 decision-makers support two more 25 basis point cuts before December, while a minority advocates for a pause or larger cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Goolsbee emphasizes the challenges posed by the government shutdown, which has resulted in missing key economic data, creating an information vacuum for interest rate path decisions [3] - The market has adjusted its expectations for further rate cuts this year, reflecting a recalibration of policy uncertainty and a dynamic interplay between policymakers and market participants [4] - The Fed's policy trajectory will depend on the pace of inflation decline and the resilience of the labor market, with a focus on maintaining a "data-dependent" decision-making framework [4]