DLS MARKETS：全球铜矿出现问题，多家机构上调目标价

Group 1 - Copper prices have seen a cumulative increase of 20% this year, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 2% to $10,409 per ton on Monday [1] - The New York Mercantile Exchange's copper futures for October settled at $4.841 per pound, up 2.6% [3] - A significant reduction in copper supply is expected due to a mudslide at the second-largest copper mine operated by Freeport-McMoRan, leading to a long-term production cut [3] Group 2 - Chile's El Teniente copper mine has been forced to halt operations due to a tunnel collapse, which will take months to resolve, further impacting global copper supply [3] - Societe Generale's commodity analysis team estimates that the Grasberg mine alone will incur a loss of approximately 273,000 tons of copper supply from September to December [3] - The global copper market may face its highest supply deficit since 2004 in the second half of 2024, with a potential shortfall of 200,000 tons [3] Group 3 - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price forecasts, with JPMorgan increasing its Q4 LME copper price prediction from $9,350 to $11,000 per ton, a rise of over 17% [4] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 copper price forecast by 11% to $11,313 per ton, and by 12.5% for 2027 to $13,501 per ton [4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its previous forecast from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a shortage of 55,000 tons, confirming a complete reversal in the copper market's supply-demand balance [4]