降息100个基点！埃及央行宣布→

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut this year, which aligns with expectations [1][2]. Monetary Policy Decision - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the overnight deposit rate to 21%, the overnight lending rate to 22%, and the main operation rate to 21.50%, while the discount rate is also lowered to 21.50% [2]. - This decision reflects the MPC's latest assessment of inflation trends and outlook since the last meeting [2]. Economic Growth and Inflation - The actual GDP growth rate is projected to increase from 4.8% in Q1 2025 to 5.0% in Q2 2025, with an average growth rate of 4.4% for the fiscal year 2024/25, driven by non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and trade [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate decreased from 13.9% in July to 12.0% in August 2025, indicating a moderation in inflation [3]. - Core inflation also fell from 11.6% in July to 10.7% in August, reflecting a broader decline in prices, particularly in food [3]. Inflation Outlook - The MPC estimates that average inflation for Q3 will continue to slow, ranging between 12% and 13%, down from 15.2% in the previous quarter [3]. - The medium-term inflation outlook suggests a continued decline, with an average expected around 14% in 2025, converging towards the central bank's target range by Q4 2026 [3][4]. Policy Implications - The MPC believes that the 100 basis point rate cut will help maintain an appropriate monetary policy stance, anchor inflation expectations, and support the ongoing process of inflation decline [4]. - Future assessments of the pace and intensity of monetary easing will be based on predictive paths, latest data, and risk balances [4].