Cyber Hit Fades, But Challenges Remain For United Natural Foods: Analyst

Core Insights - United Natural Foods, Inc. demonstrated resilience with a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance despite a disruptive cybersecurity incident [1][4] - The company reported revenue of $7.70 billion, slightly above BTIG's estimate of $7.61 billion, reflecting a 3.0% volume decline and 2.0% inflation [4] - The cybersecurity incident had an estimated $400 million impact on sales and $50 million on adjusted EBITDA, but the disruption was largely resolved by late July [5] Financial Projections - For fiscal 2026, United Natural Foods projects roughly flat sales compared to fiscal year 2025, with adjusted EBITDA forecasted between $630 million to $700 million, indicating about 20% growth at the midpoint [6] - BTIG's revised forecasts indicate revenue expectations of $31.9 billion for fiscal year 2026, slightly above the previous estimate of $31.5 billion, and an increase to $32.5 billion in fiscal year 2027 [7] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise from $552 million in fiscal year 2025 to $648 million in fiscal year 2026, aligning with management's guidance [8] Analyst Commentary - BTIG analyst Peter Saleh noted that while the recent performance and targets are encouraging, structural challenges and modest profitability remain concerns [3] - The company's management expressed confidence in navigating the cyber incident and outlined a multi-year growth outlook, projecting low single-digit sales growth and low-teens adjusted EBITDA growth over the next two years [2]