美政府停摆或至少持续10天？美股不慌：接着奏乐接着舞！

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is currently experiencing record highs despite the government shutdown, indicating investor confidence in corporate earnings and macroeconomic trends over political uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have averaged 8 days, with the stock market showing positive returns one month and three months post-shutdown [2][4]. - Current market predictions suggest a 63% probability that the shutdown will last over 10 days, and a 40% chance it will extend beyond 15 days [4]. - The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 34 days, during which the S&P 500 rose by 10%, highlighting that macroeconomic factors can outweigh short-term political disruptions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Expectations - Investors are increasingly anticipating two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut this month [5]. - The average decline in the stock market during government shutdowns is only 1.6%, with the most significant drop being 6.1% during a 1979 shutdown [5]. - The current bullish trend in the stock market at the onset of the shutdown suggests that it is likely to continue rising, as historical patterns indicate that strong market momentum can persist despite political uncertainties [5].