周五没有非农，更严重的数据延迟还在后头？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic reports, including inflation, employment, and unemployment data, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [2][3][4]. Economic Reports Impact - The absence of these reports comes at a sensitive time for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, as the labor market has deteriorated since late spring, prompting the Fed to implement its first rate cut of the year [3][4]. - The release of the September employment report, originally scheduled for Friday, is uncertain, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs [4][6]. - If the shutdown continues, the October employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) could face significant delays, with the CPI originally set for release on October 15 [4][8]. Historical Context - Historical data from the 2013 government shutdown indicates that delayed reports can be released shortly after government operations resume, but prolonged shutdowns could complicate data collection [5][9]. - If the shutdown lasts beyond 16 days, the October employment report and CPI will be severely affected, with potential delays pushing the employment report past November 7 [6][7]. Economic Implications - A prolonged shutdown could prevent the release of the October CPI, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), hindering the Fed's ability to assess current inflation trends [9]. - Despite the disruption in data release, historical experience suggests that government shutdowns do not significantly impact the economy itself, although extended shutdowns could increase the risk of economic fractures and misjudgments by the Fed [9][10].