断供镓材料后，美国更担心，中国若断供矿物锑，美将面临弹药停产

Group 1: Export Controls and Supply Chain Impact - In July 2023, China implemented export controls on gallium and germanium, significantly disrupting the U.S. supply chain, as China accounts for 94% of global gallium production and 83% of germanium production [2] - The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that a complete ban on gallium and germanium from China could reduce the U.S. GDP by $3.4 billion, highlighting the interconnectedness of the supply chain [2] - Following the export controls, gallium exports from China nearly halted, leading to a sharp increase in prices and concerns over inventory shortages among U.S. semiconductor and military manufacturers [2] Group 2: Antimony Supply Concerns - Antimony, while less publicized than gallium, is critical for military applications, with China producing 56% to 63% of the global supply and accounting for 63% of U.S. imports [4] - The U.S. has no domestic antimony production, relying entirely on imports, which raises significant concerns for military readiness and production capabilities [4] - A report indicated that U.S. antimony reserves could last only a week, posing a severe risk to military production if tensions escalate [6] Group 3: Price Surge and Military Readiness - Following China's announcement of export controls on antimony, prices surged from $10,000 per ton at the beginning of the year to over $30,000 by the end of the year, with projections suggesting prices could reach $50,000 to $100,000 per ton [8] - The U.S. Department of Defense assessed that 78% of its weapon systems rely on materials like antimony, gallium, and germanium, indicating a significant impact on military capabilities [8] - The production of critical military ammunition is being hampered by material shortages, with the monthly production of 155mm shells struggling to meet targets due to supply constraints [10] Group 4: Global Military Spending and Material Demand - Global military spending reached $2.4 trillion in 2023, a 7% increase from the previous year, driving up demand for critical materials [10] - The U.S. is exploring domestic mining investments and international partnerships to diversify its supply chain and reduce reliance on Chinese materials [12] - The European Union and the UK are also recognizing the strategic importance of antimony and are working to diversify their supply sources [12] Group 5: Long-term Supply Chain Challenges - The environmental challenges associated with antimony mining complicate efforts to increase domestic production, with new mines taking at least a decade to develop [12] - The reliance on a few countries for critical materials exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain, necessitating a balance between dependence and self-sufficiency [14] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with mineral resources becoming a focal point in the competition between major powers, emphasizing the need for strategic resource management [14]