37万亿美债压顶，黄金创45年真实新高！

Core Insights - The international gold price has reached its highest level in 45 years, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][3] - Goldman Sachs reports extreme bullish sentiment in the gold market, with a long-to-short position ratio of 8:1, the highest in a decade, reflecting a re-evaluation of systemic risks [3][5] - Major financial institutions and central banks are increasing their gold holdings, with global central bank purchases averaging over 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, signaling a strategic shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5][7] Market Dynamics - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness, with national debt exceeding $37 trillion and a projected federal deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY2025, has made gold an attractive alternative [5] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with China's holdings rising nearly 30% over three years [5][7] - The macroeconomic environment mirrors the 1970s, with persistent core inflation and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened concerns about stagflation and financial instability [5][7] Investment Trends - The historical high in gold prices is prompting a shift in asset allocation strategies, moving away from traditional "stocks + bonds" portfolios [7] - There is a notable increase in retail participation in gold through ETFs and bank gold accumulation, with a reported 18% year-on-year growth in domestic bank gold accumulation transactions [7] - The correlation between gold and traditional assets like the U.S. dollar and treasury bonds is weakening, indicating a return to gold's role as a hedge [7]