黄金在新高边缘疯狂试探，“特朗普2.0结束前有望剑指7000！”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating uncertainty for investors seeking signals of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, contributing to a rise in gold prices, which are approaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced a five-day increase, reaching a historical peak before a slight pullback due to profit-taking by traders [3]. - Analysts suggest that prolonged government shutdowns could positively impact the gold market, while any unexpected agreements to reopen the government could have a negative effect [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 90% chance of another cut in December [4]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - UBS forecasts gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months due to declining real interest rates and a weakening dollar [4]. - HSBC anticipates that geopolitical risks and fiscal uncertainties could push gold prices above $4,000 per ounce in the short term, with sustained demand for gold as a diversification tool [4]. Group 3: Debt Levels and Market Implications - The U.S. government debt has reached an astonishing $37.5 trillion, approximately 124% of GDP, which is significantly higher than historical levels [5][11]. - The global government debt has surged to $324 trillion, exceeding 253% of world GDP, indicating a broader trend of increasing debt burdens [5]. - Margin debt in the U.S. has risen nearly 33% year-over-year to a record $1.06 trillion, reflecting aggressive trading behavior among investors [8][11]. Group 4: Central Bank and Retail Demand - Central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, recognizing gold as a finite asset compared to fiat currencies [12]. - Retail demand for gold remains strong in countries like India and China, driven by cultural preferences for gold in gifting and status [12].