怪不得最近美股持续新高呢，还有黄金也是不断创出新高，今天原因终于浮出了水面，那就是美国在7年之后再次关门了

Group 1 - The recent market behavior is unusual, with US stocks reaching new highs while gold prices also surge, despite the looming risk of a government shutdown [1] - Wall Street interprets the potential government shutdown as a signal for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in October, despite Fed Chair Powell's previous statements emphasizing persistent inflation concerns [3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market has reacted positively, with significant gains in the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index, indicating that investors are pricing in the expectation of a dovish shift from the Fed [3] Group 2 - The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, leading to speculation that economic weakness will prompt the Fed to cut rates [4] - Market predictions suggest a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with an 88% chance of another cut in December, driven by the narrative of a struggling economy [4] - Despite the rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset, the concurrent increase in US stocks suggests that the market is not in a state of panic but rather betting on a policy shift [6] Group 3 - The current market sentiment appears driven by emotions rather than solid fundamentals, with concerns about corporate earnings growth and rising layoffs [6][8] - The Fed is unlikely to make drastic rate cuts without considering inflation, employment, and financial stability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [8] - The market's current optimism may be short-lived, as previous expectations of rate cuts have not materialized, suggesting that the current hype could lead to a negative correction if the Fed does not meet market expectations [8][9]