稳定币的代币特征及其对国际货币体系的影响

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of stablecoins, while enhancing cross-border payment efficiency and reducing costs, reveals limitations in their monetary functions, indicating a potential short-term impact on dollarization trends and a long-term inability to disrupt the multi-polar development of the international monetary system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Development of Stablecoins - The emergence of distributed ledger technology has provided the technical foundation for stablecoins, leading to a significant increase in their market size, with an annual growth rate exceeding 100% since 2020 [3][4]. - As of June 2025, the stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with on-chain transaction volumes reaching approximately $7 trillion in 2024, accounting for 0.4% of global SWIFT settlement volumes [3][4]. - Stablecoins are increasingly utilized in various sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and virtual economies, serving as a core collateral and payment method [6][8]. Group 2: Characteristics and Limitations of Stablecoins - Stablecoins primarily function as a digital representation of fiat currencies, lacking the essential characteristics of traditional money, such as single currency status, elasticity, and integrity [9][10]. - They exhibit significant scene dependency, primarily functioning within the digital asset ecosystem, and face regulatory challenges in mainstream economic transactions [14][15]. - The stability of stablecoins is relative and relies on market trust rather than institutional guarantees, making them vulnerable to price fluctuations and market sentiment [16][17]. Group 3: Impact on International Monetary System - In the short term, stablecoins may reinforce dollarization trends, particularly in small economies where they serve as a bridge between local currencies and the dollar [18][19]. - The long-term evolution of the international monetary system is expected to remain multi-polar, with stablecoins unlikely to fulfill the roles of a global currency due to inherent structural deficiencies [21][22]. - The introduction of stablecoins may intensify competition among major international currencies, accelerating the evolution of the global monetary landscape [24]. Group 4: Recommendations for China - China should expedite the establishment of a regulatory framework for stablecoins, ensuring compliance and mitigating risks associated with their use [26][27]. - The development of offshore RMB stablecoins is essential to create controllable international payment channels, leveraging Hong Kong's financial infrastructure [28][29]. - Strengthening the collaboration between stablecoins and the digital RMB can enhance the global presence of the RMB in payment systems [29][30]. - Deepening the opening of the bond market will provide more options for stablecoin collateral, supporting the internationalization of the RMB [30][31].