特朗普信赖的美联储理事米兰：房租上涨或导致其改变通胀预期

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, indicated that he may adjust his inflation outlook if housing costs unexpectedly rise, acknowledging that his stance differs from mainstream views and is not fixed [1] Group 1: Inflation and Housing Costs - Miran downplayed the risk of tariffs driving inflation, suggesting that stricter immigration policies and average rent trends could suppress housing inflation [1] - He stated that if certain events indicate that the expected channels are ineffective and rent surges significantly, he would need to revise his mild inflation forecast [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Miran voted against the recent Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, advocating for a more substantial cut of 0.5 percentage points [1] - He called for a series of aggressive rate cuts to bring the benchmark policy rate to what he considers a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [1] Group 3: Employment Market and Future Predictions - Amid signs of weakness in the job market, policymakers are increasingly acknowledging the need for further rate cuts, although some remain cautious due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and inflation still exceeding the Fed's 2% target [1] - According to the median forecast from last month's meeting, Federal Reserve officials expect two additional rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each by the end of 2025 [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - Miran, who joined the Federal Reserve Board in September, faced scrutiny regarding his previous role in the White House and the potential political influence on Fed decisions [2] - He emphasized that since his confirmation, he has not communicated with Trump and has not been directed to take specific policy actions, asserting his role is to bring fresh, non-mainstream perspectives to the Fed [2] - When asked about broader reforms at the Fed, Miran stated that such matters should ultimately be addressed by Congress rather than himself [2]