Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon says he’s ‘not smart enough’ to know if AI is a bubble, but ‘it’s not different’ from other market manias

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed uncertainty about whether the current AI investment trend is a bubble, stating that "it's not different this time" compared to past market behaviors [1] - Solomon anticipates a potential drawdown in equity markets within the next 12-24 months, which he believes is a natural outcome given the recent market rally [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced significant growth, hitting 190 record highs since 2020, largely driven by AI investments and tech company gains, with a 15% increase year-to-date [3] Group 2: AI Investment Perspectives - Jeff Bezos characterized the current AI investment trend as an "industrial bubble," suggesting that while share prices may decline, the societal benefits from AI investments will persist [4] - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the possibility of an AI bubble, indicating that the market will experience cycles of overinvestment and underinvestment [5] - Solomon highlighted the transformative potential of AI on productivity, noting that Goldman Sachs has integrated AI into its operations, resulting in a 20% productivity boost for software engineers [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Solomon emphasized that the industry is "at the beginning of the movie, not the end of the movie," indicating a long-term perspective on AI's impact [7]