银行10月份又要降息了！意味着我们接下来要尽快卖房？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with a probability of 91.1%, indicating a trend towards cheaper borrowing globally [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a global signal, influencing other countries, including China, to follow suit to prevent capital outflow and support domestic markets [2][3]. - China's real estate market is under pressure, with a reported 8% decline in funding for property companies and a 10.5% drop in personal mortgage loans from January to August [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges in the Real Estate Market - Historical precedents, such as Japan's experience in the 1990s, suggest that rate cuts do not guarantee rising property prices, as seen with a 53% drop in Japanese housing prices from 1991 to 2005 [4][5]. - Current demographic trends show a significant decrease in the primary home-buying age group (20-35 years), with a population decline and an increasing elderly demographic, leading to reduced demand for housing [5][6]. - The average housing area per person in China is 42 square meters, indicating an oversupply of housing relative to demand, with a 3.1% increase in unsold properties from January to August [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Selling Pressure - There is a prevailing sentiment that housing prices will not recover, with former central bank officials stating that future price increases are unlikely, undermining the belief in perpetual price growth [7][8]. - The current market dynamics show that sellers are more anxious than buyers, with a notable urgency to sell properties, especially in lower-tier cities where prices have dropped by 0.35% in September [8][9]. - Properties that are older, lack amenities, or are located in less desirable areas are particularly at risk, with recommendations to sell such assets quickly to avoid further depreciation [9][10].