美国大豆滞销后,特朗普通知中国,谈判议题变了,谢锋说了12个字
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-03 20:04

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing unprecedented challenges due to the lack of Chinese purchases, which has historically accounted for over 60% of U.S. soybean exports. This situation has led to significant price drops and dissatisfaction among American farmers, who are now struggling with unsold crops and financial losses [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans, marking the first time in nearly 30 years that this has occurred [1][3]. - The price of soybeans has fallen below production costs, causing distress among farmers as they face unsold crops that are beginning to spoil [5][31]. - South American countries, particularly Brazil and Argentina, have capitalized on this situation by increasing their exports to China, with Brazil exporting 40 shipments of soybeans in September alone [7][25]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Policies - The U.S.-China trade war has severely impacted American soybean farmers, who are now calling out the Trump administration's tariff policies as detrimental to their livelihoods [3][5]. - China has shifted its strategy to reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans by adjusting feed formulations and increasing imports from South America [9][38]. - Trump's administration has attempted to leverage the soybean issue in trade negotiations, demanding that China quadruple its soybean purchases, which has been met with firm resistance from Chinese officials [21][23]. Group 3: Farmer Sentiment and Response - American farmers are expressing their frustration through protests, with many stating that they will not support the Republican Party in future elections due to the negative impact of tariffs on their industry [27][32]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's promised subsidies are seen as insufficient to address the core issue of unsold soybeans, leading to a lack of trust among farmers [13][14]. - Farmers are increasingly concerned that if the situation does not improve, they may not plant soybeans in the next season, indicating a potential long-term decline in U.S. soybean production [32][41]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming ASEAN summit may present an opportunity for U.S.-China trade negotiations, but the outcome will depend on whether the U.S. continues to use tariffs as leverage [34][36]. - China's ongoing agricultural cooperation initiatives with various countries are likely to diversify its soybean import sources, further diminishing the U.S. market share [38][39]. - If the U.S. maintains its current trade approach, it risks losing not only the soybean market but also other agricultural exports to China, which could have severe implications for American farmers [41][43].