不以人民币结算？必和必拓的铁矿石中国不收了！美元霸权遭遇挑战

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from China Mineral Resources Group has significantly challenged the global iron ore trade, particularly the dominance of the US dollar in settlement systems [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late September, China Mineral Resources Group issued a notice to domestic steel companies, which has caused a major upheaval in international trade [3]. - China, as the world's largest iron ore importer, is leveraging its market position to assert pricing power, moving away from the traditional dominance of major suppliers like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale [5][12]. - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 has centralized procurement for domestic steel mills, allowing for unified negotiations and a shift in the previous market dynamics [5][6]. Group 2: Currency Settlement Shift - The primary issue raised by China is not the iron ore itself but the currency used for settlement, with a clear intention to reduce reliance on the US dollar and promote the use of the Chinese yuan [8][10]. - China has been gradually increasing the use of yuan in iron ore transactions, with successful settlements already completed in early 2025, indicating a growing acceptance among enterprises [8][10]. - The transition to yuan settlement represents a broader transformation in the trading system, enhancing China's influence throughout the entire transaction process [8][10]. Group 3: Implications for Global Trade - The dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is facing unprecedented challenges, with the dollar's future uncertain amid a declining index and re-evaluation of commodity prices [10][12]. - If iron ore transactions shift to yuan, it could mitigate financial losses from dollar exchange rate fluctuations and gradually detach commodity pricing from the dollar framework [10][12]. - The Chinese market is crucial for suppliers like BHP, which must recognize that losing access to this market could have dire consequences, as alternatives are available for China [12][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing "settlement game" between yuan and dollar is indicative of a significant update in global trade rules, akin to the transition from feature phones to smartphones [15][17]. - Should yuan settlement gain traction in iron ore, it could pave the way for similar practices in other commodities like copper, coal, oil, and natural gas [15][17]. - This strategic move by China signals a shift in global power dynamics, with the yuan becoming increasingly attractive as a settlement currency, reflecting real changes in global influence [18].