After Trump Deal, Can Meta Stock Withstand TikTok's Onslaught?

Core Insights - Meta Platforms has achieved a significant milestone with Instagram reaching 3 billion monthly active users, representing approximately 37% of the global population of 8.1 billion [1] - The company has seen substantial growth since acquiring Instagram in 2012, with user numbers increasing from 100 million and Meta shares rising by around 1,800% over the past 13 years [2] - However, Meta faces increasing competition from TikTok, especially following President Trump's executive order aimed at facilitating American ownership of TikTok's U.S. operations, which could pose a threat to Instagram's market position [2][7] Competitive Landscape - Meta's executives have acknowledged TikTok as a significant competitor, with Adam Mosseri, Head of Instagram, stating that TikTok is the fiercest competition faced during his tenure [4] - The emergence of TikTok has reportedly contributed to a 40% decline in Instagram usage in 2019 [4] - Meta's Chief Product Officer emphasized the need for Instagram Reels to compete effectively with TikTok, noting that users spend significantly more time on TikTok and YouTube compared to Instagram Reels [6] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the TikTok deal, Meta's stock showed minimal reaction, with only a 1% drop the next day and a 3% decline through early October, indicating that the market does not perceive a significant threat to Meta's competitive position [8] - The company's strategy to adapt Instagram's layout to resemble TikTok's format is being tested in markets like South Korea and India, with plans for a global rollout if successful [9] Engagement and Advertising Strategy - Meta aims to enhance user engagement and ad conversions through Reels, which reportedly reach 122% more users and generate 91% more engagement than single-image posts [10] - If successful, these changes could attract more advertising spending, potentially benefiting investors [10] Stock Forecast - Analysts have a 12-month stock price forecast for Meta at $830.02, indicating a potential upside of 16.81% from the current price of $710.56 [11] - Despite the competitive pressures from TikTok, Meta's stock has increased by over 300% since the beginning of 2018, suggesting resilience in its market position [12]