牛津经济学家：科创将长期支撑中国增长

Core Insights - The resilience of Asian economies amidst global economic uncertainty is highlighted, with optimism for growth in several Asian economies due to supportive government policies and regional cooperation mitigating the impact of U.S. protectionism [1][5][6] Group 1: Economic Performance and Factors - Many Asian economies have shown strong performance this year, partly due to the "pre-order" effect from U.S. tariff policies, which has bolstered exports [1][5] - The growth momentum for some Asian economies is expected to remain optimistic in the coming quarters, supported by government policies and deepening regional cooperation [1][5] - The manufacturing sector in China, which constitutes about one-quarter of its GDP, is crucial for long-term growth through productivity enhancement via technological innovation [3][4] Group 2: Regional Cooperation and Trade Agreements - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is facilitating regional trade and could provide an additional GDP gain of about 2% for member economies if trade commitments are upheld [6][7] - Regional cooperation is seen as a core driver for sustained economic growth in Asia, potentially offsetting some negative impacts from U.S. trade protectionism [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Climate - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to positively influence capital flows into emerging Asian markets, enhancing investor sentiment [8] - Despite challenges from external trade environments, Asian economies are likely to focus on regional trade strategies and internal demand transformation for long-term growth [9] - Countries like China and South Korea are anticipated to benefit from ongoing technological advancements, supporting their long-term economic growth [9]