外盘铜价创年内新高

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that copper prices have surged due to multiple factors, including supply disruptions, macroeconomic policies, and changes in supply-demand dynamics, with LME copper futures breaking the $10,500 per ton mark for the first time since May 2024 [1][2] - A significant accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest, has sharply tightened market supply expectations, leading to a downward revision of global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025-2026 [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has shifted its global copper market outlook from "oversupply" to "shortage," while JPMorgan forecasts an average LME copper price of $11,000 per ton in Q4, significantly higher than the July prediction of $9,350 per ton [1][2] Group 2 - Macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, are seen as an "invisible driver" of rising copper prices, with potential further rate cuts likely to boost market risk sentiment and support copper prices [2] - The tight copper supply has affected the smelting sector, with global copper concentrate production growth lagging behind refined copper, leading to low processing fees and losses for domestic smelters [2] - The domestic copper industry is entering a peak season, with increased operating rates in various sectors, including electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production, driven by strong demand from the power and new energy vehicle sectors [2] Group 3 - Despite the U.S. government's tariff exemptions on copper concentrate and refined copper, the U.S. Geological Survey's classification of copper concentrate as a critical mineral may lead to increased competition for copper resources [3] - Analysts believe that copper prices still have the potential to rise further due to tight global copper concentrate supply, although high prices may dampen industry demand [3] - Factors supporting strong copper prices include the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, ongoing mine production cuts, and increased orders in the domestic power and new energy vehicle sectors, although caution is advised due to potential demand pressures and global trade risks [3]