赵晋平 | 服务贸易政策创新：出口结构升级与进口优化

Core Insights - China's service trade continues to maintain stable growth in 2025, with service import and export values reaching 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3][4] - Service exports have shown a robust growth trend, with a 15.1% increase year-on-year, driven by significant growth in travel and cultural services [10][11] - The report highlights the need for policy adjustments to address uncertainties in service trade growth due to external factors such as U.S. tariffs and domestic consumption demand [3][4] Group 1: Service Trade Development Characteristics - The service trade development index for the first two quarters of 2025 reached 102.2%, indicating a steady improvement in overall service trade levels [4] - The service export development index for the same period was 107.9%, reflecting a sustained positive trend in service exports [5][10] - The report identifies challenges in the service export structure, particularly in the second industry-related services, which lagged with an index of 87.3% [5][14] Group 2: Service Export Trends - Service exports have shown a significant increase, with the industry development index reaching 115.1% and a market demand growth of 15.1% [10][11] - Notably, travel and personal cultural services saw growth rates of 74.2% and 59.1%, respectively, highlighting the impact of policy innovations like visa-free entry [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of human services exports, which contributed significantly to the overall service export growth [11] Group 3: Service Import Trends - The service import development index for the first two quarters of 2025 was 100.9%, indicating a slight increase but still facing downward pressure [15][16] - Service import values grew by only 2.7% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown compared to service export growth [16] - The financial services sector showed signs of recovery, with the service import structure index rising to 122.4% [17] Group 4: Service Trade Balance - The service trade balance index for the first two quarters of 2025 was -20.3%, indicating a persistent trade deficit, although it has narrowed by 5.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [19][20] - The second industry-related services maintained a significant surplus, with a balance index of 36.1%, supporting the overall trade balance [20] - Knowledge-intensive services also saw an increase in surplus, with a trade balance index of 9.5%, reflecting improved competitiveness in emerging sectors [21] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests expanding visa-free policies and enhancing support for service exports to stabilize and grow the sector [36][37] - It emphasizes the need for a robust policy environment to promote quality service imports, which can help balance trade and support domestic consumption [37][38] - Establishing a response mechanism for trade friction is recommended to mitigate the impacts of external pressures on service trade [38]