中国金融强国崛起，双支柱战略显威力，挑战美元霸主地位

Core Insights - The total amount of cross-border payments in RMB has reached a historical high, with the dollar's share dropping to 62%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a potential shift in currency preference among businesses [1] - Discussions around RMB's internationalization have intensified, with some questioning whether it could replace the dollar, despite RMB's international settlement share only being 3.5%, significantly lower than the euro and far from the dollar's dominance [3] - Regulatory changes, such as the recent easing of restrictions for foreign institutions to trade A-shares, have sparked debates about the attractiveness of RMB assets [3] - There is a notable increase in cross-border payments in RMB, particularly in Southeast Asia, where orders using RMB have doubled, reflecting a growing acceptance of the currency [3] - Foreign capital inflow into China's bond market has increased by 12% year-on-year, but 70% of this capital is directed towards short-term government bonds, indicating cautious long-term investment sentiment [3] - The lack of a "super anchor" asset and trust in the RMB are seen as major obstacles to its internationalization, with comparisons drawn to the dollar's established status in global trade [5] - Recent developments, such as Argentina's central bank renewing a currency swap agreement with China, highlight the mixed signals in RMB's international acceptance, as other countries like Chile reaffirm their preference for the dollar [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes that RMB internationalization is a gradual process, requiring time and effort to build trust and establish a stable capital market [5] - Market volatility in A-shares has raised concerns about foreign capital's willingness to invest, with fears of policy changes and information asymmetry contributing to a cautious approach [5] - The ongoing dialogue about RMB's internationalization and capital market opening reflects a complex interplay of market psychology and regulatory dynamics, with no clear resolution in sight [7] - The impact of RMB internationalization on ordinary people's financial interests is highlighted, as it affects their ability to access reliable assets and manage currency risks during international travel [9] - The gradual evolution of the RMB's role in global finance is likened to a marathon, with significant challenges remaining before it can rival the dollar's dominance [9]