WXSJ(SH:603185) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-04 04:32Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing strict anti-involution regulations, leading to significant disparities in how different players are faring [1] - Major component manufacturers are subject to detailed compliance checks for every order, requiring approval before any sales discussions can occur [3] - The approval authority has tightened this year, with penalties for low-price sales affecting not only the individuals involved but also their companies [5] Pricing Dynamics - Major manufacturers are maintaining stable pricing, with recent project bids showing prices between 0.723-0.76 yuan/W, which are above the market benchmark of 0.701 yuan/W [6][8] - Distributors are largely compliant, with a notable absence of prices below 0.7 yuan/W in the market, as many are stockpiling in anticipation of price increases after the holiday [8] - Some procurement entities have set tax-inclusive price caps, disqualifying bids below 0.7 yuan/W [10] Company-Specific Issues - Hongyuan Green Energy has publicly supported anti-involution policies but is rumored to have been removed from the industry self-discipline list, leading to a lack of trust in its products [13][15] - The company submitted a bid of 0.655 yuan/W for a project, which was below the updated cost line of 0.69 yuan/W, raising concerns about compliance with pricing standards [15] - Following internal discussions, Hongyuan was reportedly removed from the self-discipline list and has not participated in recent meetings, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [15] Challenges for Smaller Players - Second and third-tier manufacturers are struggling to survive, often resorting to low pricing around 0.66 yuan/W due to cash flow issues and customer retention fears [16] - State-owned enterprises prioritize comprehensive support over low prices, making it difficult for smaller manufacturers to compete effectively [18] - Investment concerns are rising as the internal rate of return (IRR) for projects has decreased, leading to hesitance among procurement parties regarding price increases [20] Conclusion - While industry self-discipline has stabilized prices in the short term, it has not addressed long-term issues related to profit distribution and the sustainability of smaller manufacturers [20]