生猪期货创阶段新低，能繁母猪存栏不降反增，拐点何时到来？｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in live pig futures prices is primarily driven by significant supply pressure, with high production capacity and limited demand support, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][3][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of September 30, the main live pig futures contract dropped to 12,355 yuan/ton, with expectations of continued downward pressure post-National Day due to high October slaughter rates and reduced demand [2][3]. - The number of breeding sows stood at 40.38 million as of August 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% month-on-month, indicating stable production capacity [3]. - The average daily price of live pigs in major markets was 12.18 yuan/kg as of September 29, down 2.04 yuan/kg (14.35%) since July 23 [3]. Price Trends - The price of piglets has also seen a significant decline, dropping over 40% from 420 yuan/head to 240 yuan/head between early August and September 20 [6]. - The current futures prices remain above spot prices, suggesting limited downside potential for futures despite the overall bearish trend [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the market is experiencing a shift from a buyer's to a seller's market for piglets, driven by increased supply and reduced demand [6]. - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with breeding profits reported at -95 yuan/head for self-bred pigs and -241 yuan/head for purchased piglets as of September 25 [8]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see increased slaughter volumes, particularly after the National Day holiday, which may further pressure prices [9][10]. Regulatory and Policy Impact - Recent regulatory measures aimed at controlling production capacity, such as halting the expansion of breeding sows, are expected to influence market dynamics moving forward [3][8]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to lead to effective capacity reduction if implemented rigorously, potentially stabilizing the market in the long term [10].