美国9月ISM非制造业PMI大幅下滑

Group 1 - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. dropped significantly from 52 to 50 in September, indicating a contraction in the service sector, which is a crucial pillar of the U.S. economy [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was not released due to the government shutdown, but market expectations suggest it remains at a relatively low level [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other market participants have warned of downside risks to the U.S. economy, which has influenced the Fed's decision to consider rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October Federal Reserve meeting, although the impact of such cuts on the economy is uncertain due to the lagging effects of monetary policy [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy until Powell's term ends in May next year, making rapid and significant rate cuts unlikely [2] - In this context, the U.S. economy may face increased negative pressures, with the potential for "black swan" events not being ruled out [2]