生猪期货创阶段新低，能繁母猪存栏不降反增，拐点何时到来？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in live pig futures prices is primarily driven by significant supply pressure, with high production levels leading to increased market outflow and limited demand support [3][5][10]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of September 30, the main live pig futures contract dropped to 12,355 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing downward pressure due to high supply levels and a subsequent decrease in demand post-holiday [3][5]. - The number of breeding sows stood at 40.38 million as of August 2025, indicating stable production capacity, but with a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows month-on-month [5][10]. - The average daily price of live pigs in major markets was 12.18 yuan/kg as of September 29, down 2.04 yuan/kg (14.35%) since July 23, indicating a sustained downward trend in prices [5][9]. Price Trends - The price of piglets has also seen a significant decline, dropping over 40% from 420 yuan/head to 240 yuan/head between early August and late September, attributed to high supply and weak demand [7][8]. - The average weight of live pigs at market was reported at 127.63 kg as of September 25, showing a slight increase, but overall market weight is accumulating due to slow outflow [9][10]. Future Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued pressure on prices due to high supply levels, with a peak in pig outflow anticipated post-National Day holiday [10][11]. - Seasonal demand is expected to increase in December, potentially leading to a rebound in prices, although the overall upward potential may be limited due to sustained high outflow levels [11]. - The industry is currently characterized by a "weak reality + strong expectations" dynamic, suggesting that while immediate pressures exist, there may be opportunities for strategic trading [11].